With the all-time series tied at 3-3, Saturday night’s showdown between the TCU Horned Frogs and Utah Utes will decide who takes the lead.
Our TCU vs. Utah preview breaks down the matchup, provides key betting insights, and guides you toward making the best wagering choices.
TCU vs. Utah Betting Preview
All TCU vs. Utah odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Utah -10.5 - Spread
Utah -3 - Moneyline
Utah -155, TCU +130 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 19 - Location
Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah - Predicted Weather at Kick
49 degrees, 5 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN
The total had shot up from 46.5 at opening to 51, with Utah QB Cam Rising’s out-for-season announcement likely playing a role after he completed just 43.2% of his passes with no TDs and three INTs last week. It has since been bought back down to 49.5 on Friday.
Both of these squads have struggled against the spread, with TCU going 1-6 in its last seven games and Utah going 1-4 in its last five.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the total, there are two trends to note:
- The over has hit in each of TCU’s last five road games.
- The under has hit in seven of Utah’s last eight contests.
TCU’s Winning Probability
TCU is 3-3 on the year and 1-2 in the conference, and according to the FPM, there are few wins left on their schedule. After a 21.9% win probability against Utah, the Horned Frogs only have one game above 50% in their final stretch.
- at Texas Tech: 47.2%
- vs. Baylor: 50.4%
- at Oklahoma State: 49.2%
- at Arizona: 38.1%
- vs. Cincinnati: 49.6%
Utah’s Winning Probability
Without Rising, the Utes are sitting at a strong 78.1% win probability this week, and opposite of the Horned Frogs, they’re favored to come out on top in all but one of their last five matchups.
- at Houston: 85.1%
- vs. BYU: 50.0%
- at Colorado: 64.1%
- vs. Iowa State: 51.2%
- at UCF: 71.6%
Prediction for TCU vs. Utah
Aside from Rising’s ongoing battle with injuries, the Utes’ toughest test this season came against Grand Valley State, with consecutive losses to Arizona and Arizona State setting them back in recent weeks.
Now, with true freshman Isaac Wilson firmly entrenched as the starting quarterback, Utah is eyeing a future that—ideally—includes a spot in the Big 12 title game during their first season in the conference.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
TCU has found itself near the bottom of the league standings, largely due to losses against Houston and UCF—teams that have had their own struggles. While Horned Frogs QB Josh Hoover has shown potential under center and kept TCU competitive, the run game has struggled to provide consistent support.
The Utes’ situation is markedly different. Wilson has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (7), while RB Micah Bernard (103-676-2 rushing line) has been the workhorse, leading the team through their 4-0 start.
Hoover and his teammates are set to face their toughest challenge yet, as Utah’s defense has been rock solid, allowing just 290.7 yards (17th) and 17 points (T-18th) per game. That points-per-game figure could be even better if not for the offense’s turnover issues.
Three key areas could spell trouble for TCU in this matchup:
Turnover differential:
1) Utah, -3
2) TCU, -10
Time of possession:
1) Utah, 34:57
2) TCU, 28:26
Penalty yards per game:
Utah, 37
TCU, 71
Despite uncertainty at QB, take the Utes to win and cover at home, with the under hitting in Salt Lake City.
Prediction: Utah 27, TCU 17
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