The Pittsburgh Panthers welcome the Syracuse Orange to the Steel City on Thursday night, looking to build on their all-time head-to-head advantage over their ACC foe — which includes a 7-2 record under head coach Pat Narduzzi.
As the kickoff of a pivotal ACC clash nears, here’s an in-depth look at the latest odds, a spread breakdown, and our Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh prediction.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Betting Preview
All Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
Pittsburgh -4 - Spread
Pittsburgh -5.5 - Moneyline
Pittsburgh -205, Syracuse +170 - Over/Under
63 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium | Pittsburgh, PA - Predicted Weather at Kick
54 degrees, 3 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
ESPN
The Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh odds opened at -4 in favor of the Panthers but have since risen to -5.5. The points total has also seen some significant movement, with the line at 63 points on Wednesday AM. Narduzzi’s team is 5-1 covering the spread through the 2024 season, while Syracuse in just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
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There are also a few intriguing over/under trends to be aware of:
- The under has hit in four of the Orange’s last five.
- The over has hit in 13 of Pitt’s last 20.
- The total has gone under in five of the Panthers’ last seven against an ACC opponent.
Syracuse’s Winning Probability
In Fran Brown’s first year at the helm, the Orange are 5-1, just one win off of their 2023 total (6-7). While the FPM only gives them a 38.9% win probability against Pitt, their rest-of-season outlook is much more optimistic:
- vs. Virginia Tech: 51.8%
- at Boston College: 52.8%
- at California: 50.6%
- vs. UConn: 88.1%
- vs. Miami-FL: 24.7%
If those winning probabilities were to hold true, Syracuse would finish the 2024 campaign with a 9-3 overall record, with three ACC defeats. After compiling a 5-6 record under Dino Babers last year, it would be a significant first-year turnaround for the Orange.
Pittsburgh’s Winning Probability
Despite the less-than-a-touchdown spread, the FPM gives the Panthers a 61.1% chance of defeating Syracuse. The road to the ACC title only gets more difficult, though, with Pitt owning win probabilities under 50% against SMU, Clemson, and Lousiville.
- at SMU: 39.4%
- vs. Virginia: 73.4%
- vs. Clemson: 32.3%
- at Louisville: 45.7%
- at Boston College: 60.6%
If those win projections were to hold true, Pittsburgh would finish the 2024 season with a 9-3 record, flipping the script from a year ago. Head coach Narduzzi was under external pressure ahead of this campaign, but that should change the national narrative.
Prediction for Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh
While Pittsburgh is 6-0 for the first time in 42 years, all good things come to an end.
Syracuse QB Kyle McCord has thrown for over 300 yards in all six games, helping secure the program’s first back-to-back road wins since 2012. In fact, the Orange are second in the nation at 365.2 passing yards per game.
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How good is Pitt against the pass? They aren’t, allowing 244.7 yards per game (104th). Now, game script certainly plays into both numbers, but Syracuse’s identity is the pass, going from 23.2 attempts last season (125th) to 46.8 in 2024 (1st).
With WRs Jackson Meeks, Trebor Pena, and TE Oronde Gadsden II averaging 70+ yards per game, defenses have struggled to contain the aerial attack. It’s not as if McCord is ripping it downfield every play. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.
McCord’s 9.0 average depth of target is one of the lowest figures in the country due to the offense’s quick hitters, screens, and RPOs.
Nevertheless, both teams have had time to prepare for this one, as they are coming off bye weeks.
Although ‘Cuse and Pitt are +2 in turnover differential, Panthers QB Eli Holstein has been erratic behind center while enjoying some turnover luck. I’m putting Pitt on upset alert and picking the Orange ATS and straight up.
Prediction: Syracuse 28, Pittsburgh 24
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