After the dust settled from Week 4, one thing was certain: The Group of Five conferences took it collectively on the chin. However, one team did more than just make it through the Saturday worth of action.
The James Madison Dukes not only dispatched ACC for North Carolina, but they put themselves in a position to contend for the Sun Belt in Year 3 as an FBS school.
JMU Climbs 2024 Sun Belt Championship Odds
We all watched in awe as the Dukes ran up 70 points on North Carolina. But what happened in the background was even more awe-inspiring.
Single-handedly, JMU’s Sun Belt Championship Odds were dashed. Or, depending on which way you look at it, increased. And not just by a slim margin. By a lot.
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According to College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), JMU is now the second favorite to win the Sun Belt, behind only Texas State.
This is, of course, after they were third a week ago, but by a large margin. Let’s look at the live Sun Belt Championship odds now.
1) Texas State Sun Belt Championship Odds: 41.75%
The Bobcats are the class of the Sun Belt until proven otherwise this season. As great as JMU looked in Week 4, Texas State was off and only see their Sun Belt odds shrink because of the uptick in performance from the Dukes.
Still, Texas State is led by a plethora of potential next-level talent, an incredible coach, and a well-respected depth chart from top to bottom. Here are the ‘hardest games’ remaining as based on the CFN Strength of Schedule for Texas State:
- Texas State (-2.5) @ South Alabama (Projection: W)
- Texas State (-7) vs. Louisiana (Projection: W)
- Texas State (-7.5) @ Troy (Projection: W)
The Bobcats have three games left on their schedule that are up for debate, including a season-ending clash that could prove incredibly important to the Sun Belt Championship Game. They have the luxury of only facing South Alabama out of the top four teams below them here.
2) James Madison Sun Belt Championship Odds: 23.66%
The Dukes put on an offensive show in Week 4 and have clearly woken up since their first-half struggles against Gardner-Webb. With North Carolina out of the way, JMU now has a 5.35% chance to win the rest of their games this season. That’s up from below 1% a week ago.
That pushes their chances to win the Sun Belt to the second-most in the conference. JMU saw their projected win total go from 7.7 to 8.5. But it could be even more than that as these are their hardest remaining games:
- James Madison (-2.5) @ Appalachian State (Projection: W)
- James Madison (-5.5) @ Georgia Southern (Projection: W)
- James Madison (-7.5) vs. Marshall (Projection: W)
The Dukes are favored, for the time being, in each of their games remaining, and only have a projected spread of one possession for three of those contests. This includes notably difficult road games against App State and Georgia Southern. The former of which will have massive implications for the Sun Belt final standings come November.
3) South Alabama Sun Belt Championship Odds: 16.45%
The Jaguars put their names on the national radar with a shellacking of Northwestern State in Week 3 and further announced their place in the Sun Belt with a dominant showing from Gio Lopez in Week 4 on Thursday night.
With their last two showings, specifically knocking off App State, South Alabama has moved into third place in terms of odds. Unlike the top two here, however, South Alabama’s win-out chances are very slim with their toughest games remaining:
- South Alabama (22.5) @ LSU (Projection: L)
- South Alabama (2.5) vs. Texas State (Projection: L)
- South Alabama (0.5) @ Louisiana (Projection: L)
The get Texas State at home to close the season, and could either play spoiler to the Bobcats or punch their own ticket at that point. They have a tough one against LSU in their way, thus all but destroying their win-out chances, but that does nothing for their Sun Belt odds.
4) App State Sun Belt Championship Odds: 6.04%
App State’s hopes were dashed on Thursday night of Week 4, losing handily to South Alabama at home. Though dropping a conference game in the Sun Belt is going to sting, they’re down by not out.
The Mountaineers’ odds dropped significantly, but they’re absolutely still a player. In Week 3, App State’s chances to win the Sun Belt sat at 13.22%, falling off to 6.04% following their loss to South Alabama.
The good news for App State? Two of their toughest three games are out of the way already (Clemson, South Alabama). The bad news? Only that these tough spots remain:
- Appalachian State (6) vs. Liberty (Projection: L)
- Appalachian State (2.5) vs. James Madison (Projection: L)
- Appalachian State (1.5) @ Louisiana (Projection: L)
5) Marshall Sun Belt Championship Odds: 5.07%
It was a week to improve on fundamentals and return from Columbus healthy. While Marshall did that, to an extent, things could’ve gone better in Week 4.
However, it was nothing the Thundering Herd did that saw their Sun Belt chances drop, it was more the situation around them and the JMU Effect.
Marshall’s chances dropped from 6.07% to 5.07% and they’ll have a tough road ahead of them with these tough matchups on the schedule:
- Marshall (7.5) @ James Madison (Projection: L)
- Marshall (0.5) @ Georgia Southern (Projection: L)
- Marshall (-0.5) vs. Appalachian State (Projection: W)
6) Louisiana Sun Belt Championship Odds: 3.00%
It’s a long shot at this point, but the Ragin’ Cajuns can still play spoiler along the way. And, yes, they’re not out of it completely.
Louisiana’s chances dropped from 4.85% to an even 3% following their loss to Tulane, but it was more due to JMU and South Alabama’s collective performances than anything else. It should be of note, of their hardest three games remaining, only one is projected as a conference loss:
- Louisiana (7) @ Texas State (Projection: L)
- Louisiana (6.25) @ Wake Forest (Projection: L)
- Louisiana (-0.75) vs. South Alabama (Projection: W)
7) Georgia Southern Sun Belt Championship Odds: 1.22%
We’re getting into uncharted territory here in terms of chances to win the conference, but mathematically, Georgia Southern (and no team for that matter) is still alive. It’s a wildly difficult road ahead and they’re projected just 5.8 wins after Week 4.
However, of their toughest remaining games, only two are by more than a field goal:
- Georgia Southern (5.5) vs. James Madison (Projection: L)
- Georgia Southern (5.5) @ South Alabama (Projection: L)
- Georgia Southern (1.5) @ Coastal Carolina (Projection: L)
8) Coastal Carolina Sun Belt Championship Odds: 0.99%
Things are getting hairy down here for Coastal. The Chants have a tough road remaining, even after getting Virginia off their schedule, their toughest game was always set to be an away contest at JMU this season.
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They’re down, but not out, following their Week 4 loss to Virginia, and like everyone else in the Sun Belt, still have a chance to run the table and win, hence their 0.99%. However, their toughest games remaining are all conference games and they’re all on the road:
- Coastal Carolina (9) @ James Madison (Projection: L)
- Coastal Carolina (3.5) @ Marshall (Projection: L)
- Coastal Carolina (1.5) @ Georgia State (Projection: L)
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