If there’s one team that desperately needs to get back on track, it’s the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. What began as a hopeful campaign with an impressive road win at Texas A&M has since taken a nosedive after a shocking home loss to Northern Illinois—a blemish that only grows more glaring as the season progresses.
Now, the Stanford Cardinal come to town this Saturday, looking to add to Notre Dame’s woes. Can Stanford deliver another blow to the Irish? Here’s our breakdown of this Stanford vs. Notre Dame matchup.
Predicting Stanford vs. Notre Dame
All Stanford vs. Notre Dame odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -18 - Spread
Notre Dame -23 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -1800, Stanford +1000 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas vary a bit on this one, with the latter favoring Notre Dame by more than three touchdowns, while FPM has the Fighting Irish by 18. With a spread of 23 points and a total of 45, Vegas has little faith in the Cardinal offense, implying a final score close to 34-11 in favor of the Irish.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread has come down a bit to -23, but Vegas is aligned, as Notre Dame is around a 23- or 24-point favorite on most books.
Stanford’s Winning Probability
Stanford has an 8.7% chance to win on Saturday. The Cardinal are underdogs in most of their remaining games, and a bowl game is out of the question without a few major upsets.
- at Notre Dame: 8.7%
- vs. SMU: 20.4%
- vs. Wake Forest: 50.8%
- at NC State: 34.3%
- vs. Louisville: 25.1%
- vs. California: 38.9%
- at San Jose State: 51.8%
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower on Notre Dame than Vegas is.
FPM has the Irish as 18-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 91.3%. Notre Dame is a heavy favorite in every game, with only the USC game having less than a 65% win probability.
- vs. Stanford: 91.3%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 66.4%
- vs. Navy: 87.4%
- vs. Florida State: 88.6%
- vs. Virginia: 83.3%
- vs. Army: 87.2%
- at USC: 57.4%
Prediction for Stanford vs. Notre Dame
Outside of an impressive season opener against Texas A&M and a narrow escape against Louisville, the Irish have been more disappointing than dominant this year. They were even on the brink of losing to a second MAC opponent if Miami (OH) had gotten just a bit more production from its quarterback.
Notre Dame’s secondary, once thought to be a strength, has been a surprising vulnerability this season, making the health of Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels a key factor in this matchup. With Daniels on the field, Stanford has a shot to keep things close. Without him, the path to victory gets a lot easier for the Irish.
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But Notre Dame is starting to show signs of improvement, especially with Riley Leonard reemerging as a legitimate downfield threat—a critical element that was missing earlier in the year. As a result, Notre Dame’s playoff hopes are still flickering.
Turnovers could also play a pivotal role in this game. The Irish rank 23rd nationally in forcing takeaways, while Stanford has struggled, coughing up the ball twice per game on average.
Notre Dame isn’t built to blow teams out, so covering a 23.5-point spread feels like a big ask. While an outright loss isn’t in the cards, I agree with FPM that the Irish are unlikely to cover.
I’m not confident enough in Stanford’s offense to back them, though, so I’m expecting a routine Irish win—one that’s never really in doubt for the outright result but could leave those banking on a Notre Dame cover disappointed.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Stanford 10
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