Prior to the season, it was hard for many to see the South Carolina Gamecocks and Vanderbilt Commodores as intriguing teams, even if the potential was there for each. Now, the Gamecocks are 5-3, and the Commodores are 6-2. Yet, each fan base is at least somewhat frustrated the records aren’t better.
The winner will certainly be ranked in next week’s College Football Playoff rankings, while the loser will certainly be on the outside of the Top 25. The Gamecocks have recently made an interesting shift in their offense, while Diego Pavia always gives the Commodores a chance. Find out who we think wins one of Week 11’s most intriguing matchups in this South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt prediction.
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Vanderbilt -3.5 - Spread
South Carolina -4 - Moneyline
South Carolina -180, Vanderbilt +150 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
While Vegas disagrees with the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter line, so too do bettors. The line opened at South Carolina -3 and has moved to -4 since then. Similarly, the total has moved down from 46.4 to 45.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The total’s drop might be weather-related, as a predicted Sunday storm is now expected to move in earlier, impacting at least the second half of the game. With a spread of four points and a total of 45, the game is expected to be close and low-scoring, with an implied final score close to 24-20 in favor of the Gamecocks.
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
South Carolina isn’t loved by FPM, but the Gamecocks have outplayed the metric in three consecutive games, covering in all three (and winning outright in two) when the metric though they’d fail to cover in all of them.
The metric gives them a 39.4% of beating the Commodores. South Carolina should get to bowl eligibility, but a win this weekend could make 8-4 or 9-3 a real possibility.
- at Vanderbilt: 39.4%
- vs. Missouri: 50.4%
- vs. Wofford: 99.8%
- at Clemson: 28.4%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Vanderbilt has a 60.6% chance of beating the Gamecocks at home. The rest of the schedule is difficult, but the Commodores could secure their first winning season since 2013 with a win on Saturday.
- vs. South Carolina: 60.6%
- at LSU: 25.1%
- vs. Tennessee: 34.3%
Prediction for South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
While FPM has struggled to find the Gamecocks’ true level, this South Carolina alum has had a great grasp on the team from a betting perspective this year, correctly picking the last two games as multi-score wins.
But can the Gamecocks beat a solid Vanderbilt team?
The statistical profiles of these teams are fascinating. The Commodores have really struggled to run the ball, and it’s Pavia who has led the team in rushing.
He excels at avoiding sacks when pressured, but he hasn’t been pressured this season as much as he’ll be pressured against the Gamecocks, who have the best pass rush in the country. One of the keys here is whether Pavia can evade pressure and still create positive plays.
If either of those things doesn’t happen, Vanderbilt could struggle to move the ball. If the Commodores keep getting stuck in third-and-long situations, the tackles won’t hold up against South Carolina’s dynamic edge rushing duo of Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard.
Offensively, the Gamecocks literally changed their primary rushing scheme over the bye week. South Carolina went from running zone on nearly 70% of its rushing plays before the bye to running gap-scheme power on 22 of 35 (63%) of their rushing attempts against Texas A&M, the SEC’s top-ranked rushing defense.
It’s a one-game sample, but it’s plenty to show that’s the direction the Gamecocks should go. Against the Aggies, the Gamecocks ran for 177 yards on gap-scheme runs (8.05 yards per attempt), with three touchdowns and zero runs for zero or negative yards.
For a team that had been allowing the highest tackle-for-loss rate in the SEC, it’s serious progress. South Carolina was successful on 13 of those 22 runs (59%).
But what does all of that mean?
Basically, South Carolina bullied the second-best defensive front in the SEC. Given that the Gamecocks’ defensive front has dominated every offensive line on the schedule so far, it’s fair to say South Carolina has the potential to just bully the opposition.
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Vanderbilt has the Pavia-Eli Stowers connection that teams have struggled to stop. if South Carolina can counter with Nick Emmanwori or Jalon Kilgore, the Gamecocks should feel confident in at least slowing that down.
Vanderbilt is a great team that has succeeded in part due to favorable position group matchups this season. I think South Carolina’s line play is too much to overcome on Saturday. The rain might not help, but I’m interested to see what effect that has on the game.
Typically, it actually helps the offenses, and with two already-slippery quarterbacks, the weather could have the opposite effect bettors think, helping push this game over.
Sorry FPM, I disagree again. Gamecocks win and cover, maybe even easily.
Prediction: South Carolina 31, Vanderbilt 22
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