The South Carolina Gamecocks and Oklahoma Sooners have never played before Week 8. Who will kick off the new SEC series with a win?
Our South Carolina vs. Oklahoma prediction breaks down the matchup, highlights key betting tips, and guides you on where to place your wagers.
South Carolina vs. Oklahoma Betting Preview
All South Carolina vs. Oklahoma odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oklahoma -5.5 - Spread
Oklahoma -2.5 - Moneyline
Oklahoma -135, South Carolina +114 - Over/Under
41 points - Game Time
12:45 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 19 - Location
Memorial Stadium, Norman, Okla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 11 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
SEC Network
After opening at Oklahoma -4, the spread has dropped by a point and a half, even further away from the FPM’s outlook of the contest.
While South Carolina is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games, Oklahoma is 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The straight-up splits are a lot more one-sided, with the Gamecocks going 1-5 in their last six on the road and the Sooners standing 10-1 in their last 11 at home.
As far as the total, there are two trends to know:
- The under has hit in eight of South Carolina’s last 12.
- The under has hit in four of Oklahoma’s last six.
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
Did the Gamecocks take Alabama down to the wire? Yes. Does that mean they are in the same league as the Crimson Tide? No. All that game proved is that it’s truly “any given Saturday” in college football, and that point should be proven in Week 8.
According to the FPM, South Carolina has a 35.4% win probability against Oklahoma, and it doesn’t get any better after that. Outside of a home bout against FCS-level Wofford, the Gamecocks are projected to lose their last four FBS contests this season.
- vs. Texas A&M: 25.8%
- at Vanderbilt: 35.4%
- vs. Missouri: 35.4%
- vs. Wofford: 96.9%
- at Clemson: 17.0%
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
The Sooners’ outlook isn’t all that different. Their 64.6% win probability against South Carolina is followed by sub-32% rates in their final four FBS contests.
- at Ole Miss: 24.5%
- vs. Maine: 99.5%
- at Missouri: 31.2%
- vs. Alabama: 20.7%
- vs. LSU: 16.7%
Prediction for South Carolina vs. Oklahoma
On paper, this is the case of a moveable object (Oklahoma’s offense, 125th in yards per game) vs. an unstoppable force (South Carolina’s defense, 20th in YPG allowed).
Additionally, the Sooners are 130th in third-down rate (26.5%), struggle to push the ball downfield, and have a WR corps that resembles a M.A.S.H unit.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
But football games aren’t played on paper.
South Carolina is emotionally spent after nearly upsetting Alabama, while Oklahoma is looking to bounce back after an embarrassing performance against rival Texas. Homefield advantage also matters, particularly with the Gamecocks on the road for a second straight week.
Shane Beamer’s squad is also dealing with its own struggles in key areas:
- Haven’t won the turnover margin since Sept. 7 against Kentucky (currently 0; Oklahoma +7)
- Concede 4.3 sacks per game (26 total)
- Commit 70 penalty yards per contest (Oklahoma averages 55)
- Rank 100th in Stuff Rate and 83rd in EPA/rush allowed
Due to a combination of current form, trends, analytics, and projected game flow, I’m taking the Sooners to win straight up and cover the spread. The under streaks could continue, but at 41 points, I’d rather put my money elsewhere.
Prediction: Oklahoma 24, South Carolina 20
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