Fresh off a record-setting performance in Week 3, can the Jaguars upset the Mountaineers?
Check out the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our final prediction for South Alabama vs. Appalachian State ahead of Thursday’s standalone contest.
South Alabama vs. Appalachian State Betting Preview
All South Alabama vs. Appalachian State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Sept. 19.
- Spread
App State -7 - Moneyline
App State -270, South Alabama +220 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, Sept. 19 - Location
Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, North Carolina - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, 3 mph winds, showers - How To Watch
ESPN
The total has increased by five points since the opening and became a top-five figure in Week 4, largely thanks to South Alabama putting up 87 on Northwestern State, the most by an FBS team since 1991 and a conference record.
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However, the under has hit in eight of Appalachian State’s last 12 games, signaling a pattern of tighter, lower-scoring affairs. That forced the number to come back down to where it sits just ahead of kickoff: 62.5.
Despite South Alabama’s offensive explosion, App State’s defense and more methodical pace could keep this matchup from reaching such high numbers.
The Mountaineers are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when favored by 7+ points, while the Jaguars are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 overall.
Prediction for South Alabama vs. Appalachian State
South Alabama and App State have met three times since 2018, with the Mountaineers dominating each matchup, outscoring the Jaguars 113-17.
Recent trends don’t favor the Jaguars turning things around, either. They’ve dropped three consecutive road games while App State has won four straight at home.
However, with a healthy Gio Lopez at quarterback and Jamaal Pritchett making plays on the outside, South Alabama still has a puncher’s chance in every contest. The defense, though, will need to tighten up after giving up 397 yards and 29.7 points per game against North Texas, Ohio, and Northwestern State.
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App State QB Joey Aguilar and the Mountaineers’ offense, which has been inconsistent to date, could finally capitalize on the potential they flashed last season against South Alabama’s struggling unit.
App State’s defense hasn’t been much better. They’ve given up 447 yards and 31.7 points per game, though those numbers are skewed by a 66-20 loss to Clemson in Week 2. Our prediction sees App State extending their winning streak over South Alabama, but the smart bet is on the under.
Look for a controlled, methodical approach from the Sun Belt favorite, keeping the final score below the projected line.
Prediction: Appalachian State 31, South Alabama 18
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