The Virginia Cavaliers fell to the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish under the South Bend lights on Saturday, suffering a 35-14 defeat. The loss dropped Virginia to a 5-5 overall record and 3-3 in ACC play, a stark contrast to the momentum building in Dallas, where the SMU Mustangs surged to No. 13 in this week’s AP Top 25.
Riding the wave of a seven-game winning streak, SMU took down the Boston College Eagles 38-28 last weekend, improving to an impressive 9-1 on the season. In their inaugural ACC campaign, the Mustangs remain perfect in conference play at 6-0, cementing their place among the league’s elite.
Looking ahead, the Cavaliers are battling for bowl eligibility, while the Mustangs have their sights set on an ACC title and a potential College Football Playoff spot. It’s a story of two teams on vastly different paths, each fighting to define their season’s legacy.
SMU vs. Virginia Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Virginia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -8.5 - Spread
SMU -10.5 - Moneyline
SMU -355, Virginia +280 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Scott Stadium | Charlottesville, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, partly cloudy, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The Mustangs opened as -10.5-point favorites, and that number fluctuated before ultimately settling on -9. It will likely fluctuate again before kickoff on Saturday. The total opened at 55.5 and has climbed as high as 58.5 in the last few days. It currently sits at 57.5 but will likely see some movement before kickoff.
SMU’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Mustangs have a 74.6% chance of defeating the Cavaliers on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, SMU will finish their inaugural season in the ACC with an 11-1 record and a birth in the ACC Championship Game against either Clemson or Miami.
- at Virginia: 74.6%
- vs. Cal: 79.9%
Virginia’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Virginia has a 25.4% chance of defeating SMU at home this week.
If the win probabilities hold, the Cavaliers would finish their 2024 campaign with a record of 5-7. If this is the case, this would mark the fifth straight season Virginia fails to reach bowl eligibility.
- vs. SMU: 25.4%
- at Virginia Tech: 36.4%
Prediction for SMU vs. Virginia
Virginia has quietly been a solid performer against the spread this season, boasting a 6-3-1 record and covering in five of its last seven games. SMU, on the other hand, brings an impressive 9-1 overall record but a more modest 6-4 ATS mark.
The Mustangs fell short of expectations against the number last week, failing to cover a 19-point spread in their 38-28 win over Boston College. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled with consistency as the season wears on.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
This is unfamiliar territory for both programs, as Virginia and SMU have never faced off on the field. SMU, in its first ACC season, has much more on the line. The Mustangs are chasing an undefeated conference record and a shot at the ACC title, while Virginia may already have one eye on next week’s rivalry game against Virginia Tech.
The Cavaliers have had their moments this season but were thoroughly outmatched in South Bend last week and seem to be running out of steam late in the year. This matchup sets up perfectly for SMU to take advantage. With their high-powered offense and the stakes higher than ever, the Mustangs are primed to handle a Virginia team that could easily get caught looking ahead.
Expect SMU to set the tone early and take control of this game from the start.
Prediction: SMU 37 – Virginia 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.