The Virginia Cavaliers lost to the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a 35-14 loss under the South Bend lights this past Saturday. This dropped the Cavaliers to an even 5-5 overall record and 3-3 in ACC play. It contrasts with the SMU Mustangs’ surge, as they climbed to No. 13 in this week’s AP Top 25.
Riding a seven-game winning streak, SMU took down the Boston College Eagles 38-28 last weekend, improving to 9-1 on the season. In their inaugural ACC campaign, the Mustangs remain unblemished in conference play, a flawless 6-0, and are proving they belong among the league’s elite.
As both teams look ahead, Virginia fights for bowl eligibility while SMU chases an ACC title and a potential College Football Playoff berth. It’s a tale of two trajectories, each striving to define their season’s legacy.
SMU vs. Virginia Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Virginia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -8.5 - Spread
SMU -9 - Moneyline
SMU -290, Virginia +280 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Scott Stadium | Charlottesville, VA - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, partly cloudy, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The Mustangs opened as -10.5-point favorites, and that number fluctuated before ultimately settling on -9. It will likely fluctuate again before kickoff on Saturday. The total opened at 55.5 and has climbed as high as 58.5 in the last few days. It currently sits at 57.5 but will likely see some movement before kickoff.
SMU’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Mustangs have a 74.6% chance of defeating the Cavaliers on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, SMU will finish their inaugural season in the ACC with an 11-1 record and a birth in the ACC Championship Game against either Clemson or Miami.
- at Virginia: 74.6%
- vs. Cal: 79.9%
Virginia’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Virginia has a 25.4% chance of defeating SMU at home this week.
If the win probabilities hold, the Cavaliers would finish their 2024 campaign with a record of 5-7. If this is the case, this would mark the fifth straight season Virginia fails to reach bowl eligibility.
- vs. SMU: 25.4%
- at Virginia Tech: 36.4%
Prediction for SMU vs. Virginia
Virginia has quietly been solid against the spread this season, posting a 6-3-1 mark and covering in five of its last seven outings. SMU, meanwhile, carries a stellar 9-1 overall record but is a more modest 6-4 ATS.
The Mustangs stumbled against the number last week, failing to cover a 19-point spread in their 38-28 win over Boston College. Both teams have shown flashes but have struggled to sustain consistency recently.
This is unfamiliar ground for both programs, as Virginia and SMU have never met on the gridiron. SMU, in its inaugural ACC season, has far more at stake. The Mustangs are chasing perfection in conference play and a potential ACC title berth, while Virginia might already have its sights set on next week’s rivalry clash with Virginia Tech.
The Cavaliers have shown resilience at times but were outmatched in South Bend last week and have struggled to find a rhythm late in the season. This matchup feels ripe for SMU to capitalize. With their dynamic offense and the high stakes, the Mustangs look poised to roll past a Virginia team that could easily fall into a look-ahead trap.
Expect SMU to control this one from the start.
Prediction: SMU 37 – Virginia 24
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