Texas might be famous for high school football under the Friday night lights, but it’s an all-AAC clash between the 7-2 SMU Mustangs and 3-6 North Texas Mean Green that is set to excited and entertain this week.
Who emerges victorious in the Safeway Bowl? Ahead of the game, we’ve got the latest college football betting odds, DFS picks, and an SMU vs. North Texas prediction.
SMU vs. North Texas Betting and DFS Preview
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023. Want to take advantage of the SMU vs. North Texas odds? Visit the College Football Network live college football odds page to place bets in your state.
- Spread
SMU -17 - Moneyline
SMU -1000, North Texas +650 - Over/Under
67.5 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
50 degrees, 9 mph winds, cloudy - How to Watch
ESPN2, FuboTV
Looking to make some money on the Mustangs? Is Mean Green just the nickname you’re going to give the winnings that North Texas makes you? If you’re going to take advantage of the SMU vs. North Texas odds, consider some of the following factors before you part with your hard-earned cash.
Dallas hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for North Texas. They haven’t beaten SMU there since 1933, facilitating a 35-6-1 winning record for the Mustangs in the Safeway Bowl. Can the Mean Green get one last win in the finale of the rivalry game? With a gap between the two teams far more sizeable than the distance from Dallas to Denton, it feels unlikely.
SMU is a considerable favorite, and they haven’t lost in that scenario all season. North Texas has one win as an underdog this season, against Louisiana Tech, but that win against an underperforming Bulldogs team makes up the one of a 1-5 record as an underdog. We’ll get into the why in our SMU vs. North Texas prediction, but backing the Mustangs is the choice.
Although North Texas brings a 3-6 overall record after going 1-4 in the AAC, they’ve done a good job of covering the spread this year. The Mean Green have gone 6-3 against the spread, covering the only other game where they’ve been a double-digit ‘dog. SMU has consistently covered when favored by more than a touchdown, making this a close one to call against the spread.
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
SMU Depth Chart | North Texas Depth Chart
- QB Preston Stone, SMU
- QB Chandler Rogers, North Texas
- QB Stone Earle, North Texas
- RB Jaylan Knighton, SMU
- RB LJ Johnson Jr., SMU
- RB Camar Wheaton, SMU
- RB Ayo Adeyi, North Texas
- RB Oscar Adaway III, North Texas
- RB Isaiah Johnson, North Texas
- WR Jake Bailey, SMU
- WR Jordan Hudson, SMU
- WR Romello Brinson, SMU
- WR Roderick Daniels Jr., SMU
- WR Ja’Mori Maclin, North Texas
- WR Roderic Burns, North Texas
- WR Damon Ward Jr., North Texas
- WR Trey Cleveland, North Texas
- TE RJ Maryland, SMU
- TE Xzavior Kautai, North Texas
There are two college football games on Friday to compile your DFS team from in Week 11. If you’re new to DFS, Fanduel Superflex contests require you to select a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and a Superflex that can be any of the above. Or you can also select a tight end for the Superflex spot.
Kicking off your SMU vs. North Texas picks at the quarterback position, there’s a fascinating matchup at hand between Preston Stone and Chandler Rogers. Although Rogers didn’t open the season as the starter for the Mean Green, his 208.2 fantasy points inserts him as the QB3 in the AAC. Stone sits at QB4, and a more favorable matchup might tip the QB spot in his favor.
The Friday night slate throws up a great tussle for your two RB selections, including Harrison Waylee at Wyoming and Jai’Den Thomas at UNLV. Although North Texas has a running back duo who split reps and both have four touchdowns this year, Ayo Adeyi leads the way with 716 yards and 99.8 fantasy points so far. Jaylan Knighton is also a viable option with receiving upside.
The other game on the Friday slate will provide one of your WR options, with Ricky White can’t miss week in, week out. North Texas’ Ja’Mori Maclin is also a high-scoring fantasy weapon, sitting as the AAC WR2 with 142.6 points. His matchup might not be favorable, but Maclin will still pace the Mean Green passing game. SMU TE RJ Maryland is a dangerous superflex option.
Prediction for SMU vs. North Texas
Okay, so we’ve furnished you with the SMU vs. North Texas odds and some DFS picks. Now, it’s time to close this thing out with our prediction. With SMU departing for the ACC at the end of the year, who wins the final edition of the Safeway Bowl?
Will SMU light up Friday night, or is North Texas primed for a shock win to dent their rivals hopes of reaching the AAC Championship Game?
With North Texas a significant underdog, let’s start with how the Mean Green can win on Friday night. Their chances of success start not with their high-powered offense, but with their ability to defend the passing game. Cornerback Ridge Texada is one of the best in the nation, forcing opposition offensive coordinators to modify their game plan to avoid throwing in his direction.
The Mean Green has been able to limit opposition quarterbacks to a 59.3% completion as a result — fourth in the AAC — while snagging the second most interceptions in the conference. SMU has been able to move the ball at 8.8 yards a go through the air, but they’re unlikely to be able to establish that level of success against North Texas on Friday night.
However, Rhett Lashlee’s team doesn’t need to do so in order to have success. They have the pieces to move the ball and find the end zone in multiple ways, whether through tight end Maryland, the ground game headed by Knighton, or a quintet of WRs with touchdown potential for quarterback Stone.
Given North Texas’ difficulties against the ground game this season, this might be where the game is won for the Mustangs. The Mean Green have given up 5.68 yards per carry with 28 touchdowns allowed — both AAC highs. Even taking into account the game with Navy on their résumé, it’s a suboptimal situation against a team with a varied and talented running back room.
We’ve somehow got this far without even talking about the Mustangs defense that forms a significant part of our SMU vs. North Texas prediction. SMU has allowed the second fewest yards per carry and a conference low five rushing touchdowns, with the ability to neutralize North Texas’ ground game.
Additionally, only Tulane has given up fewer passing touchdowns than SMU this season in the AAC. While allowing opposition quarterbacks to complete just 57.3% of their pass attempts, they’ve limited teams to just 5.6 yards per attempt this season. The Mustangs have a clear defensive advantage, and press it home in a comfortable win. Pony up!
Prediction: SMU 40, North Texas 24