The SMU Mustangs and Penn State Nittany Lions have squared off just twice in history, with their last encounter taking place over 45 years ago. In 1978, Penn State narrowly claimed a 26-21 victory, while their first meeting in 1948 ended in a hard-fought 13-13 tie.
But who comes out on top this time? Our SMU vs. Penn State prediction breaks it all down—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they clash in the opening round of the 2024 College Football Playoff.
SMU vs. Penn State College Football Playoff First Round Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -7 - Spread
Penn State -9 - Moneyline
Penn State -325, SMU +260 - Over/Under
53 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Dec. 21 - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Pa. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
TNT/Max
If you bet on SMU to cover the spread this year, you’ve made a pretty penny. The Mustangs are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10, even winning straight up in their lone game as an underdog against the Louisville Cardinals.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Nittany Lions’ 6-6 overall ATS record doesn’t look as impressive in comparison, but they are 4-1 in their last five as favorites.
Both teams have been kind to over bettors as well, with SMU cashing it in seven of its last 10 and Penn State doing so in four of its last five.
SMU’s Winning Probability
The Mustangs are fresh off a tight ACC Championship Game loss to the Clemson Tigers. While the defeat certainly stings, it was the program’s first year in the conference, which is rather remarkable. But Rhett Lashlee and Co. want more, beginning with Round 1 of the CFP.
- at Penn State: 31.2%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
James Franklin has a bit of a reputation for struggling in big games, and he couldn’t clear his name with an upset victory over the Oregon Ducks in the Big Ten title match. Can he hold off SMU as a more-than-a-touchdown favorite?
- vs. SMU: 68.8%
Prediction for SMU vs. Penn State
SMU absolutely deserves their spot in the playoffs, but I don’t see them getting past the first round.
Kevin Jennings has done a commendable job stepping in for Preston Stone, but Drew Allar brings more experience and has faced tougher competition. Allar’s decision-making is exceptional—he protects the ball and evades sacks in situations where most college QBs would fold.
Even more impressive, Allar has actually outpaced Jennings on the ground despite not being utilized in designed runs, while the SMU quarterback thrives in those scenarios. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, their challenges extend well beyond the quarterback position.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Take a closer look: SMU’s offensive success rate ranks 48th nationally, but Penn State’s defense comes in at 19th. While SMU sits at 28th in offensive net points per drive, Penn State ranks ninth in defensive net points per drive. The numbers just don’t lean in SMU’s favor.
Overall, these teams are relatively close, but SMU lacks a significant edge in any category. Penn State even outperforms in critical metrics like penalty yards per game (45 vs. 79), turnover margin (+5 vs. 0), and time of possession (30:40 vs. 28:26).
If there’s a reason to hesitate with Penn State, it’s James Franklin’s track record of underperforming in high-pressure moments. But in my opinion, that’s a storyline for later in the playoffs—not this round.
Prediction: Penn State 34, SMU 24
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