While comfortable wins for the Texas Longhorns and Ole Miss Rebels ensure those two teams remain at the forefront of the race to the conference crown, a road win against the Oklahoma Sooners sees the Tennessee Volunteers’ chances of challenging at the top increase in our latest SEC predictions.
SEC Championship Predictions
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season. It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
Below, are the CFN FPM percentages for winning the 2024 SEC Championship ahead of Week 5:
- Texas Longhorns – 41%
- Ole Miss Rebels – 12.9%
- Missouri Tigers – 12.9%
- Tennessee Volunteers – 11.8%
- LSU Tigers – 9.5%
- Georgia Bulldogs – 5.5%
- Alabama Crimson Tide – 4.8%
- Texas A&M Aggies – 1.5%
- Oklahoma Sooners – 0.1%
- South Carolina Gamecocks – 0.1%
- Arkansas Razorbacks – 0.1%
- Auburn Tigers – 0.1%
- Kentucky Wildcats – 0%
- Florida Gators – 0%
- Mississippi State – 0%
- Vanderbilt – 0%
Texas Longhorns – 41%
Texas will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 5, their first SEC game since transitioning to the conference for the 2024 college football season. While they haven’t faced a conference foe yet, their Week 2 win over the Michigan Wolverines showcased that Steve Sarkisian’s team can compete with any team in any conference.
The Longhorns currently rank in the top 10 for scoring (2nd) and total defense (5th). Their offensive firepower, whether led by Arch Manning or Quinn Ewers, makes them a favorite whoever they face, with a projected 11-1 record and 33.1% chance of winning out. Our latest SEC predictions see them winning the conference with a 41% chance of lifting the crown per CFN FPM.
Ole Miss Rebels – 12.9%
After beating Georgia Southern in Week 4, the Ole Miss Rebels head into SEC play with a 4-0 record. While a schedule that features three teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25 Poll has potential pitfalls, Lane Kiffin’s team currently has a 12.4% chance of winning out (second-highest in our SEC predictions) and a 12.9% of lifting the conference crown in December.
Behind quarterback Jaxson Dart, the Rebels lead the SEC in total offense (670.8 yards per game), scoring offense (55.0 points per game), and passing offense (422.8 passing yards per game). High-powered offenses have become a staple of Kiffin’s Ole Miss teams, but they’re being harmoniously accompanied by one of the most stingy defenses in the nation so far in 2024.
Missouri Tigers – 12.9%
After their struggles overcoming a stubborn Vanderbilt Commodores team in Week 4, the Missouri Tigers chances of winning the SEC took a minuscule dip ahead of Week 4, with the CFN FPM giving them a 12.9% of winning the conference compared to 13% ahead of the game. It’s a small change, but fine margins matter in a conference that “Just Means More.”
The manner of the win saw Eli Drinkwitz’s team drop four places in the AP Poll. However, that would still good enough for a College Football Playoff berth, and the Tigers currently have a 66.7% chance of carrying through on that early potential. Although they face Alabama in Bryant-Dennt Stadium in late October, Missouri has the easiest strength of schedule in the SEC.
Tennessee Volunteers – 11.8%
Much was made of the Josh Heupel offense taking on a Brent Venables-led Oklahoma defense, but in the end, Tennessee never looked in danger of taking a defeat in Norman. As a result, our latest SEC predictions give them an 11.8% chance to win the conference, up from 7.2% ahead of the Week 4 matchup.
Meanwhile, they have a 70.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff according to the CFN FPM. Nico Iamaleava is leading the second-ranked scoring offense in the SEC like a seasoned veteran, while the defense is allowing just 7.0 points per game. They still have to face Alabama in Neyland and take a road trip to Athens but they have an 11.1% shot of winning out.
LSU Tigers – 9.5%
Following a comfortable Week 4 win over the UCLA Bruins, not much has changed for the LSU Tigers, other than Brian Kelly’s defense putting up its best performance of the year after conceding 20+ points in its first three outings. Such is the nature of a sport of highs and lows, the win was followed by the news that star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. is out for the year.
An opening weekend loss to USC may not contribute to their SEC efforts, but it does impact a projected 9-3 record. Meanwhile, they face four teams who are ranked by the AP Poll, contributing to a 7.3% chance of winning out and 9.5% chance of winning the conference. Hosting Ole Miss in Week 7 will be the first significant test of whether the Tigers can compete for the title in 2024.
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