The Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns have already clashed in a wild, controversy-filled showdown earlier this season. Now, they square off again in the SEC Championship Game, with more than just conference bragging rights on the line.
Who will emerge victorious and secure an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff? Our SEC Championship Game prediction breaks down the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of Georgia vs. Texas.
SEC Championship Game Betting Preview
All SEC Championship Game odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -2 - Spread
Texas -3 - Moneyline
Texas -148, Georgia +124 - Over/Under
50.5 points - Game time
4 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
50 degrees, partly sunny, 5 mph winds - How to Watch
ABC
Georgia and Texas met just five times before the 2024 season, and now, they’ll have met as many times in one year as they had in the previous 30. The Bulldogs cruised past the Longhorns in Austin in mid-October to reduce the series deficit, but Steve Sarkisian’s team is favored once again as the SEC’s newest rivalry heads to Atlanta for the conference championship game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Georgia has been an underdog just once this season, and we all know exactly how that game turned out. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are 11-1 as a favorite, with a 7-5 record against the spread in that situation. That might not sound like the best (and it isn’t), but the Bulldogs are 3-9 ATS in 2024. If good teams win but great teams cover, we know exactly how to judge Georgia.
Georgia’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Georgia has a 46.6% chance of beating Texas in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. The good news for Bulldogs’ fans is that our metric projected that Georgia would lose to the Longhorns in their regular season matchup.
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Texas’ Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas has a 53.4% chance of beating the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has projected wins for the Longhorns in every game this year, proving accurate in all except the regular season loss to Georgia.
- vs. Georgia: 53.4%
Prediction for the SEC Championship Game
The stakes couldn’t be higher as Georgia and Texas prepare to clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the 2024 SEC Championship Game. The winner punches their ticket to the College Football Playoff, while the loser—depending on how the committee evaluates title game defeats—might endure a tense wait until Selection Sunday to see if they make the expanded playoff format.
Can Texas capture the SEC crown in their first season in the conference, riding the momentum of an 11-1 campaign? Can Georgia recover from their grueling overtime win in Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate to take down the Longhorns and reaffirm their dominance in the conference?
Who holds the edge, where will the game be decided, and who will etch their name in history as the first champion of the SEC’s non-division era?
Despite beating Texas earlier this season, Georgia comes into this matchup as an underdog—a position Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs have often used as fuel. Georgia thrives on the perception of being underestimated, particularly on the biggest stages. And there’s no stage bigger for the 2024 Bulldogs than the SEC Championship Game.
That first meeting between these teams gave Georgia a winning formula: relentless defensive pressure. By disrupting Texas’ offensive rhythm, Georgia rattled both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, forcing critical turnovers.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs’ ground game, led by Trevor Etienne, took full advantage, effectively sealing the game by halftime.
Questions remain for Texas, especially regarding quarterback Quinn Ewers. His health and growth are pivotal heading into this rematch. However, since their initial showdown with Georgia, the Longhorns have rediscovered their ground game, which was absent back in October.
Second-year running back Quintrevion Wisner has emerged as a key figure, coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances. The Longhorns have also leaned on the dynamic talents of Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, Ryan Wingo, and Jaydon Blue to inject creativity into Steve Sarkisian’s offense.
Yet, Texas’ path to victory likely runs through their elite defense. The Longhorns boast one of the nation’s top defensive units, allowing just 11.7 points per game and a mere 14 touchdowns all season. No team has surrendered fewer passing yards, and Texas has given up just four rushing scores since allowing three to Georgia in October.
Defensive stalwarts Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba lead the SEC with four interceptions each and were pivotal in the first Texas-Georgia encounter. Up front, Colin Simmons and Anthony Hill Jr. have become one of college football’s most fearsome pass-rushing duos.
To focus on only a handful of players, though, doesn’t do justice to a defense that’s arguably the most dominant in the country. Georgia’s defense is no stranger to imposing its will, as they showed in the first meeting, but Texas seems to hold a significant advantage on that side of the ball heading into this game.
And that spells trouble for Georgia’s Carson Beck. The talented quarterback struggled mightily against Texas in October, throwing three interceptions and averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt. While the Bulldogs’ defense and rushing attack bailed him out last time, Beck’s inability to handle pressure—both mental and physical—could open the door for Texas to claim the SEC title.
Prediction: Texas 27, Georgia 21
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