Two teams coming off wildly different surprises last week meet this Friday night as the Rice Owls take on the Memphis Tigers in an All-AAC showdown.
Who comes out on top? Our Rice vs. Memphis prediction breaks down the key angles, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Rice vs. Memphis Betting Preview
All Rice vs. Memphis odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Memphis -12 - Spread
Memphis -8 - Moneyline
Memphis -325, Rice +260 - Over/Under
51 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium | Memphis, TN
- Predicted Weather at Kick
62 degrees, becoming cloudy, 8 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN2
Friday night marks the first time the Owls and Tigers have clashed since 2012, when Memphis escaped with a narrow win in Tennessee. While the individual games have historically been tight (except in 2011), the head-to-head has been even more closely fought, with the two teams tied at 2-2 ahead of the fifth edition. However, the odds don’t forecast a tight game in 2024.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If our prediction holds true, Memphis on the moneyline is a given, but that won’t give you much bang for your buck unless you include it in a parlay. Both teams are 4-5 ATS this season, which might not inspire much confidence in a wager. Yet, the Tigers have an average winning margin of 10.8, cover the spread by 3.6 points, and should be good for a comfortable win.
Rice’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Rice has an 18.9% chance of beating Memphis on Friday night. The Owls come into the came off the back of one shock, but our metric deems it unlikely that they will taste success for the second consecutive week.
The remaining win probabilities for Rice in the 2024 season are below:
- at Memphis: 18.9%
- at UAB: 61.9%
- vs. USF: 32.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Owls would end the season with a 4-8 record. Head coach Mike Bloomgren already paid the price for a difficult second season in the AAC, and interim Pete Alamar would match the former head coach’s win total in just four games if they beat the UAB Blazers.
Memphis’ Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN FPM gives Memphis an 81.1% chance of beating Rice on Friday night. The Tigers will look to bounce back from a shock defeat to the UTSA Roadrunners and are yet to lose back-to-back games this year.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Tigers in the 2024 season:
- vs. Rice: 81.1%
- vs. UAB: 90.8%
- at Tulane: 32.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Memphis would end the year with a 9-3 record that includes three conference losses. After looking like a favorite to win the AAC and make the College Football Playoff, the team will likely miss out on both, heaping substantial pressure on fifth-year head coach Ryan Silverfield.
Prediction for Rice vs. Memphis
Rice pulled off one of Week 10’s biggest upsets, toppling the Navy Midshipmen in a game no one saw coming. It was only their third win this season but a strong debut for interim head coach Alamar, who got off to a winning start in his first time leading an FBS team. Did the renowned special teams guru tap into something new for the Owls, or was this just a classic post-firing spark?
Meanwhile, the Tigers need a bounce-back of their own after a surprising loss to UTSA, a game they were favored to win. With each loss, the AAC Championship Game drifts further away. Can Memphis pull it together and avoid a second consecutive upset? Let’s dive into who has the edge and where the key battles might play out.
Memphis was shredded through the air by UTSA, but Rice’s offense may not pose the same threat.
Temple transfer QB E.J. Warner has been as prone to interceptions as he has touchdowns this season, averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt and posing little mobility—a factor that had previously troubled the Tigers in their loss to Navy.
Rice does, however, have a versatile ground threat in Dean Connors, one of the country’s most underrated multi-tool players and likely their main offensive driver.
This Rice vs. Memphis matchup actually features two under-the-radar rushing stars, with Memphis’ offense led by Mario Anderson. With over 1,000 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns, Anderson has been unstoppable this season, though he’ll face a tough test against an Owls defense that’s been one of the best in the AAC against the run, ranking third in rushing touchdowns allowed and fifth in yards per carry.
Rice has also proven solid against the pass, with Sean Fresch and Max Ahoia combining for 13 pass breakups. They may catch a break with the possible absence of Memphis’ touchdown leader, WR Demeer Blankumsee, who injured himself celebrating a score against UTSA.
Still, Seth Henigan has plenty of targets to work with, including Anderson, who’s primed to lead the charge in a Memphis rebound win.
Prediction: Rice 21, Memphis 33
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