The Purdue Boilermakers are sitting at 1-7 this season, and it’s not about to get any easier. College Football Network’s Strength of Schedule Metric has ranked the Big Ten’s last-place team with the toughest remaining schedule in all of college football. Could the Boilermakers pull off a miracle upset over the Ohio State Buckeyes?
Unlikely. But can they cover the spread? Keep reading our Purdue vs. Ohio State prediction to see where we’re leaning on the spread and total.
Purdue vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Purdue vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -30 - Spread
Ohio State -38 - Moneyline
N/A - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 9, Noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
61 degrees, partly cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
This is CFN’s largest Power Four vs. Power Four spread of the year, and we still may have underestimated the magnitude of the gap between these teams. The line opened at Ohio State -38 and has ticked down to 37.5.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
With a total of just 53 points and the spread so wide, Vegas thinks little of Purdue here. The implied final score is close to 45-8 in favor of the Buckeyes.
Purdue’s Winning Probability
Poor Purdue. A bad season is about to get worse. Per CFN’s Football Playoff Meter, the Boilermakers are heavy underdogs in all four remaining games, with just a 0.4% chance to win this game, per the metric.
- at Ohio State: 0.4%
- vs. Penn State: 5.7%
- at Michigan State: 22.6%
- at Indiana: 3.3%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Ohio State has a 99.6% chance of beating Purdue at home, which translates to a spread of about 30 points, the biggest we’ve assigned to a Power-conference game this season.
The Buckeyes still control their own destiny and can win out to make the Big Ten Championship Game, with the matchup against Indiana essentially being a play-in game.
- vs. Purdue: 99.6%
- at Northwestern: 95.2%
- vs. Indiana: 66.9%
- vs. Michigan: 89.8%
Prediction for Purdue vs. Ohio State
Purdue hasn’t just been the worst team in the Power Four this season; they’ve also drawn the toughest closing schedule. Three of their final four games are against zero- or one-loss teams, starting with the Buckeyes in Columbus.
Realistically, there’s no path to a Boilermaker victory here. If Purdue somehow pulls off the biggest in-conference upset ever, I’ll gladly eat my words.
So, let’s shift our focus to the spread and total.
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Betting on a game with this wide of a spread is tricky. Late-game swings can send things in either direction—from favorites running up the score to underdogs rallying once the backups hit the field with a 40-point lead.
But I think the Buckeyes will be motivated to make a statement for the College Football Playoff Committee, especially if they drop a game to Indiana in a few weeks.
We know Ohio State will push hard early, but the question is: will they keep the pressure on in the second half?
Here’s my logic for why I like the Buckeyes to cover and hit the over.
Ohio State’s staff did a great job convincing several draft-eligible upperclassmen to return, which means some serious talent has been waiting on the sidelines. Even when the Buckeyes rotate in reserves, these backups are as good as, if not better than, the average Big Ten starters.
And in this case, an average Big Ten team outclasses Purdue by miles, so even if Will Howard and Emeka Egbuka step out early, players like Julian Sayin and Brandon Inniss are ready to keep the scoreboard moving.
I’m usually cautious with big spreads, but if you’re in, take the Buckeyes and the over.
Prediction: Ohio State 51, Purdue 9
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