The announcement of a 12-team College Football Playoff was a game-changer for the Penn State Nittany Lions. Often overshadowed by Ohio State and Michigan, the expanded format offers a fresh chance for this consistently strong program.
With a favorable schedule, Penn State is poised to make a playoff push—unless the Wisconsin Badgers, eager for a signature win, can spoil their plans.
Can the Badgers pull off the upset? Here’s our prediction for Penn State vs. Wisconsin.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -11.5 - Spread
Penn State -6.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -230, Wisconsin +190 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, Wisc. - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, partly cloudy, seven mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
The early spread is Penn State -6.5, as Vegas seems to view this as a trap game. The public hasn’t jumped on this at all, as the line is unchanged. With a total of 48 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 27-21 in favor of Penn State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Penn State’s Winning Probability
The Nittany Lions have an 80.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 11.5 points. The Nittany Lions have one key game remaining, a true toss-up against Ohio State with major Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications.
- at Wisconsin: 80.6%
- vs. Ohio State: 52.5%
- vs. Washington: 92.9%
- at Purdue: 95.7%
- at Minnesota: 85.9%
- vs. Maryland: 94.5%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
FPM is lower on Wisconsin in this one, as the metric has them as 11.5-point underdogs. The Badgers have a 19.4% chance to win the game. The Badgers will be underdogs in all but one of their remaining games.
- vs. Penn State: 19.4%
- at Iowa: 46.2%
- vs. Oregon: 14.1%
- at Nebraska: 46.2%
- vs. Minnesota: 63.6%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Wisconsin
This Vegas line is equal parts frustrating and amusing to me as a seasoned college football bettor.
Look at any simulation or metric, and you’ll find Penn State rated about 10-15 points better than Wisconsin, even on the road. But betting on the Nittany Lions isn’t so simple—we’ve seen this story unfold before. Just when Penn State seems poised to break into the College Football Playoff, a stumble derails their momentum.
This matchup is also a classic look-ahead spot. With Ohio State visiting Happy Valley next Saturday, a win would virtually secure Penn State’s place in the Big Ten Championship (and potentially the College Football Playoff).
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After Ohio State, Penn State’s schedule is among the softest in the Power Four, making these next two weeks pivotal. Vegas anticipates a tight, low-scoring battle as the Badgers aim to control the clock and limit possessions.
Oddly enough, I have faith in Drew Allar here. The interceptions against USC were out of character for him, and I expect a clean, rebound performance. Penn State should find success on the ground, and Wisconsin’s defense lacks an answer for Tyler Warren at tight end.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions are vulnerable to big passing plays, but Wisconsin doesn’t have the firepower to exploit it.
I’m reluctantly siding with the Nittany Lions, but I wouldn’t be shocked if a familiar big-game letdown occurs.
I’ll take Penn State and the points, with the game sneaking over the total.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 21
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