The Penn State Nittany Lions have a chance for a special season in 2024, not just because of their talent level but also because of the schedule. Assuming the College Football Playoff committee would take a one-loss Big Ten team, Penn State could nearly guarantee itself a playoff spot with a win this weekend, given the ease of the back half of the schedule.
But the USC Trojans provide a tricky matchup for the Nittany Lions, who will try to avoid the type of disappointment that has accompanied some of the James Franklin era. Can the Nittany Lions put themselves in the driver’s seat? Find out which way we lean in this Penn State vs. USC prediction.
Penn State vs. USC Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -7.5 - Spread
Penn State -4 - Moneyline
Penn State -188, USC +155 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
LA Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
79 degrees, sunny, five mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas vary a bit on this one, as both have the Nittany Lions as favorites. With a spread of four points and a total of 49.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 27-23 in favor of Penn State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread just opened, but the books are closely aligned, as Penn State is a four- to 4.5-point favorite on most books. This is the highlight of the afternoon slate, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the betting handle.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit higher on Penn State than Vegas is.
The FPM has Penn State as a 7.5-point favorite, giving it a win probability of 71.6%. The Nittany Lions are heavy favorites in every game this season other than against Ohio State, with the USC game being the second-most difficult.
- at USC: 71.6%
- at Wisconsin: 83.0%
- vs. Ohio State: 49.6%
- vs. Washington: 85.1%
- at Purdue: 95.5%
- at Minnesota: 89.1%
- vs. Maryland: 92.8%
USC’s Winning Probability
Conversely, USC has a 28.4% chance to win against Penn State. While Saturday represents a difficult matchup, the rest of the schedule is manageable. In their remaining games, the Trojans will be favored in all but one, per the metric.
- vs. Penn State: 28.4%
- at Maryland: 64.6%
- vs. Rutgers: 67.7%
- at Washington: 54.3%
- vs. Nebraska: 65.1%
- at UCLA: 85.9%
- vs. Notre Dame: 49.2%
Prediction for Penn State vs. USC
Given Penn State’s back-end schedule, a win on Saturday could essentially clinch the Nittany Lions a playoff spot.
FPM gives Penn State an 83% chance or better to win every game after this one except Ohio State. Even with a loss to the Buckeyes, an 11-1 Nittany Lions team probably makes the postseason. Excluding the Buckeyes, FPM gives them a 56% chance to win out.
That makes Saturday’s matchup against a USC team coming off a disappointing loss to Minnesota a huge matchup. This is the type of game Franklin has typically lost in the past, so can Penn State break the curse?
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I’m going against the FPM advantage here and picking the Trojans. Penn State is just one of those teams I can’t trust in a huge road spot. On paper, the Nittany Lions are the better team, but this is the second top-75 offense they’ve faced all season, and it’s while the offense is in a slump.
Prior to last week, the Trojans had allowed just 24 second-half points. That changed in the fourth quarter against the Golden Gophers, but I think that’s more of an exception than a trend.
Penn State’s offense was explosive against West Virginia and two MAC teams — all ranked below 65th in the SP+ defensive rankings. In the last two weeks, the Nittany Lions have really struggled offensively, averaging just 348 yards in Big Ten play. Neither Illinois nor UCLA had the offense to exploit them, but the trend is concerning.
I think USC bounces back, and I like its defense to slow Penn State’s rushing attack and force Drew Allar to win a game on the road in a hostile environment. I just can’t get behind that happening. If it’s close in the second half, Penn State might be in trouble.
Take the points and sprinkle the Trojans straight up at home in a physical game that just tips over.
Prediction: USC 27, Penn State 24
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