The Penn State Nittany Lions, sitting strong at 8-1, travel to West Lafayette this Saturday, where the 1-8 Purdue Boilermakers await at Ross-Ade Stadium. While the odds might be stacked against the home team, this Boilermaker program has a legacy—a reputation as the “Spoilermakers,” repeatedly stunning the college football world with 17 wins over top-five ranked teams.
Saturday represents another opportunity for Purdue to stun a contender and leave a mark on the College Football Playoff in an otherwise forgettable season. Our Penn State vs. Purdue prediction breaks down the chances of Purdue pulling off the monumental upset.
Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Purdue odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -21.5 - Spread
Penn State -28.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -5000, Purdue +2400 - Over/Under
51 points - Game time
Saturday, Nov. 16, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Ross-Ade Stadium | West Lafayette, IN - Predicted Weather at Kick
58 degrees, cloudy, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
Action is typically lower in games with this large of a spread, which results in fewer line movements.
That is precisely what we’ve seen in this matchup. This four-touchdown line opened at -28.5 and has stayed there for the most part, aside from a brief drop to -28. The total has been just as dormant. It opened at 49.5, briefly touched 51, and settled back down at 50.5, where it currently sits.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN’s FPM, the Nittany Lions have a 94.3% chance of defeating the Boilermakers on Saturday. If the win probabilities hold, Penn State would finish the season at 11-1 and most likely earn a first-round bye in the 2024 College Football Playoff.
- at Purdue: 94.3%
- at Minnesota: 73.8%
- vs. Maryland: 93.9%
Purdue’s Winning Probability
According to the FPM, Purdue has a 5.7% chance of defeating Penn State on Saturday.
If the win probabilities hold, the Boilermakers would finish at 1-11. That would be the worst finish for Purdue since 2013, when the Boilermakers also finished 1-11.
- vs. Penn State: 5.7%
- at Michigan State: 21.9%
- at Indiana: 3.5%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Purdue
On Saturday, Purdue steps onto their home field as four-touchdown underdogs, a daunting spread that speaks to the gulf between these teams on paper.
But games aren’t won on paper. The Boilermakers, undeterred by a season of struggles, have their own motivations, their own pride. And if history has taught us anything, it’s that Purdue has the capacity to surprise, to defy expectations, and to remind us why they’re called the Spoilermakers.
For Penn State, in years past, questions have lingered around the quarterback position, but this season, Drew Allar is answering. With 2,006 yards and 13 touchdowns, Allar’s improvement isn’t just in numbers — it’s in his accuracy. His completion rate has climbed past 70% this year, up from 60% last season.
Yet, as Penn State enters West Lafayette, there’s a feeling they might overlook Purdue. They’re the clear favorites, but the Boilermakers — led by senior quarterback Hudson Card — are not without talent or heart.
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Purdue’s struggles, especially on offense, have weighed heavily. Sitting at 1-8, they’ve been shut out in two of their last three games and held to 10 points or fewer in three others. Yet, Card offers a glimmer.
Recently back from injury, he threw for 267 yards and a touchdown against Northwestern — a solid performance, though he faced more challenging times against Ohio State, managing only 108 yards on 9-of-19 passing.
Card may not be known for his legs, but his mobility has been essential behind an offensive line that’s allowed 24 sacks. He’s often been forced to scramble, and it’s kept Purdue fighting, even when the odds felt stacked against them.
I think Purdue can do enough to keep this inside the number, even if they never really threaten the full upset.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Purdue 6
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