The Boise State Broncos and Penn State Nittany Lions are gearing up for their first-ever matchup, though the Broncos probably wish this historic meeting came under different circumstances. Instead, the two teams face off in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, with a potential showdown against Notre Dame or Georgia waiting in the wings.
So, who has the advantage? Our Penn State vs. Boise State prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams in this crucial second-round playoff clash.
Penn State vs. Boise State College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -7 - Spread
Penn State -12.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -500, Boise State +380 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Dec. 31 - Location
State Farm Stadium | Glendale, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Boise State has only been an underdog once this year (+17.5 against the Oregon Ducks) and nearly won that game outright (37-34). While the program has struggled to cover as double-digit favorites this year, it is 3-0 against the spread under 10 points.
The Broncos’ impressive run hasn’t always come with fireworks, though, with the under cashing in four of their last five contests.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Penn State, who just smacked the SMU Mustangs in the first round of the playoff, has now covered five of its last six games as a favorite.
The offense isn’t the most explosive on paper, but it has helped push the total over in three straight road games.
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Say what you will about James Franklin’s record in big games; he’s led the Nittany Lions to three straight double-digit win seasons and 10 bowl appearances in 11 years. Their path to the 2024 natty is about as “easy” as they come, too.
Penn State blew the brakes off of SMU, and now it steps on the field against the first-ever Group of Five program to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff.
- at Boise State: 70.3%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Since taking over as head coach toward the end of last season, Spencer Danielson has guided the Broncos to back-to-back Mountain West championships and produced a 12-1 record in 2024 — the program’s best since the 2000s Chris Peterson era.
However, the FPM believes the Broncos’ Cinderella story will come to an end in the CFP quarterfinals.
- vs. Penn State: 29.7%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Boise State
The UNLV Rebels managed to hold Boise State to just 21 points in the Mountain West Championship Game. While Boise State’s lone loss to a Power Four team this season came against the Oregon Ducks, it was a narrow three-point defeat (37-34).
First-year starter Maddux Madsen has been steady all season, but Penn State’s defense will have one clear focus: RB Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman Trophy runner-up to Colorado’s electrifying WR/CB Travis Hunter, Jeanty has put together a historic season, leading the nation in carries (344), rushing yards (2,497), and touchdowns (29).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Jeanty is on the brink of making history, needing just 132 yards in the College Football Playoff to surpass Barry Sanders’ FBS single-season rushing record. However, with the Nittany Lions looming, this game could be his only shot to etch his name in the record books.
The Broncos boast a perfect 3-0 record in Fiesta Bowl history (2007, 2010, 2014), and head coach Andy Avalos even joked on the Rich Eisen Show: “I think I’ll be fired if I say we’re not going to wear that same jersey combination, so we’re going to roll with the blue-white-orange.”
But nostalgia and uniform superstition won’t be enough against a Penn State squad that crushed SMU 38-10 in their first-round matchup.
Penn State holds advantages across the board, especially in the trenches, where Boise State’s chances hinge on Jeanty’s success. The Nittany Lions rank 11th in total EPA, second in offensive success rate, 19th in defensive success rate, and eighth in net points per drive. Boise State is competitive in those metrics (38th, 15th, 27th, and 13th, respectively), but they lack a clear edge anywhere on the field.
While Jeanty and the Broncos should put up a better fight than SMU, Penn State’s size, speed, and strength will ultimately overwhelm them. Expect the Nittany Lions to win by multiple scores as James Franklin edges closer to silencing the doubters questioning his big-game resume.
Prediction: Penn State 35, Boise State 20
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