The Penn State Nittany Lions were a trendy College Football Playoff pick to start the season, and after four games, the program has even better odds of making the postseason than they did at the beginning of the year. But does James Farnklin’s team have a realistic shot to make the Big Ten Championship?
Here, we break down Penn State’s schedule game-by-game to see if the Nittany Lions can win the Big Ten.
Projecting Penn State’s Remaining Schedule
We can project Penn State’s remaining schedule using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
The Nittany Lions will be favored in all but one of their remaining games, and given the strength of the Big Ten, even a loss there wouldn’t hurt their College Football Playoff hopes too badly. But in an 18-team league, one conference loss could put them on the outside looking in come conference championship time.
Penn State (-24.5) vs. UCLA (Projection: W)
UCLA isn’t cut out for Big Ten football in 2024, and while the Bruins could improve going forward, the first year under Deshaun Foster has been rough. Ethan Garbers has been hot-and-cold this season and even at his best, the offense hasn’t been good enough to outscore some of the league’s best offenses.
It’s been a rough stretch for the Bruins and Penn State will look to roll in this one. Our FPM projections give the Nittany Lions a 95.7% chance to win on Saturday. Theoretically, they could lose, but losing a game as a huge favorite isn’t really James Franklin’s MO.
Penn State (-5.5) @ USC (Projection: W)
Now, losing this one would not be surprising for the Nittany Lions. Losing against the other team from Southern California would be much more Penn State’s style. That said, the CFN FPM projections give the Nittany Lions a 65.1 chance to win.
Be careful, though, as this isn’t your typical Lincoln Riley team. The Trojans have been the best second-half team in the country, allowing just 24 points after halftime in their four games.
Penn State (-13) @ Wisconsin (Projection: W)
While this could be a trap game before playing Ohio State, Wisconsin has lost a lot of its bite since losing starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke for the season.
Wisconsin’s offense and defense are not playing complementary football, and provided Penn State doesn’t have a meltdown, this shouldn’t be one of the hardest games on the schedule. Our FPM gives the Nittany Lions an 82.8% chance to win on the road here.
Penn State (+0.5) vs. Ohio State (Projection: L)
This is the big one. The winner here will be in pole position in the Big Ten race. FPM has this as a true pick ’em, giving Penn State a 49.4% chance to win. While that’s basically 50%, the system has to pick a win or loss and projects the Nittany Lions to lose this one.
At home in front of a sellout crowd for a likely “White Out” night game, this will be the Game of the Week, and a win for the Nittany Lions would have fans in Happy Valley dreaming of a first-round bye and National Championship.
Penn State (-17.5) vs. Washington (Projection: W)
Penn State fans will tell you this is an upset spot, especially if the Nittany Lions defeat Ohio State the week before, but our projections have them rolling in Happy Valley. This isn’t the same Washington team as last season, and the Huskies have already shown themselves vulnerable against much less talented teams than Penn State.
Our FPM projections give the Nittany Lions a 90.8% chance to avoid the home upset here.
Penn State (-17.5) @ Purdue (Projection: W)
Things are not sunshine and rainbows for the Boilermakers. In just Year 2 of the Ryan Walters era, it seems the Purdue head coach is already in self-preservation mode.
After a 1-3 start, Walters fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. Even conceding that unit has been bad (12.7 points per game), it isn’t in the bottom six nationally. That would be the defense, which has given up 44 points per game.
It would be a major shock if the Nittany Lions fell here, as FPM gives them an 8.9% chance of being upset.
Penn State (-14) @ Minnesota (Projection: W)
PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers aren’t faring much better than some of the other hapless teams on Penn State’s schedule. The defense is solid, but once again, Minnesota is struggling to score. Expect the Nittany Lions to roll again, with an 84.2% chance to win.
Penn State (-19) vs. Maryland (Projection: W)
Penn State wraps up its comparatively easy schedule with a home game against Maryland, a team that has been historically underwhelming late in the year. If the Nittany Lions get past Ohio State, it’s quite possible they will end up undefeated.
The last hurdle is a Terrapin team FPM gives just a 7.7% chance to pull off the upset.
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