The all-time series may be locked at 3-3, but the Oregon Ducks have dominated the recent history, claiming victory in each of the last three matchups against the Wisconsin Badgers. If the Week 12 showdown delivers anything close to those thrillers (with an average score of 35-31), we’re all in for a treat.
Our Oregon vs. Wisconsin prediction breaks it all down, offering key betting insights to help you make sharper, more informed wagers.
Oregon vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -15.5 - Spread
Oregon -14 - Moneyline
Oregon -550, Wisconsin +410 - Over/Under
52 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, Wis. - Predicted Weather at Kick
49 degrees, 11 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
Fading Wisconsin has been the play for most of the year, with the Badgers going 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. However, they have been a part of solid scoring outputs, with the over hitting in seven of their past five contests.
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The Ducks have been the exact opposite. Not only are they 4-1 ATS in their last five, but the under has cashed in five of their last seven, with the offense doing enough to win and the defense locking down the opposition.
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon is one of just four FBS teams that remain undefeated entering Week 12, and the program should have no issue winning out. The FPM gives the Ducks a win probability over 88% in each of their final two bouts this year.
- at Wisconsin: 88.1%
- vs. Washington: 94.4%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
The Badgers are one win away from bowl eligibility, and although they’re a near lock to miss out this week, they’ll have two more chances to secure a dub. Wisconsin finishes the season with a road trip to the Nebraska Cornhuskers and a home defense against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
- vs. Oregon: 11.9%
- at Nebraska: 44.4%
- vs. Minnesota: 50.8%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin comes into this game off a bye, and while the extra rest is nice, it won’t make much of a difference against the Ducks. QB Braedyn Locke has thrown an interception in six straight games, and there’s a strong chance he extends that streak to seven against an Oregon defense with nine picks on the season.
The Badgers have been outscored 70-23 in their last two matchups against Penn State and Iowa, and taking on the No. 1 team in the nation is only going to make matters worse.
Oregon’s second-half defense has been lights out, giving up just 6.2 points per game over the last five contests. They’ve held Ohio State to 10, shut out Purdue, and kept Illinois, Michigan, and Maryland to six, seven, and eight points, respectively.
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On the other side of the ball, Oregon has scored 31+ points in all but one game this season (24 in a slow Week 1 against Idaho). QB Dillon Gabriel just set the all-time record for touchdowns responsible for (180) and is 1,504 yards away from breaking the career passing yards record.
To hit that mark, Gabriel will need to average 300+ yards per game the rest of the way or maintain his current pace of 284.8 yards per game through the national championship. While Wisconsin’s run defense (97th in defensive success rate) is a clear weak spot, expect the Ducks to give Gabriel plenty of chances to sling it.
The total feels sharp, but I lean toward the under. As for the spread? Oregon to win and cover should be a no-doubt lock … as long as the line holds at 14.5 or lower.
Prediction: Oregon 37, Wisconsin 13
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