The all-time series may be tied at 3-3, but the Oregon Ducks have won each of the last three meetings against the Wisconsin Badgers. Yet, if the Week 12 matchup lives up to those contests (average score of 35-31), we’re all winners.
Our Oregon vs. Wisconsin prediction dives into the details, providing key betting insights to help you make smarter wagers.
Oregon vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -15.5 - Spread
Oregon -14.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -625, Wisconsin +455 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 16 - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, Wis. - Predicted Weather at Kick
49 degrees, 11 mph winds, mostly cloudy - How To Watch
NBC
Fading Wisconsin has been the play for most of the year, with the Badgers going 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. However, they have been a part of solid scoring outputs, with the over hitting in seven of their past five contests.
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The Ducks have been the exact opposite. Not only are they 4-1 ATS in their last five, but the under has cashed in five of their last seven, with the offense doing enough to win and the defense locking down the opposition.
Oregon’s Winning Probability
Oregon is one of just four FBS teams that remain undefeated entering Week 12, and the program should have no issue winning out. The FPM gives the Ducks a win probability over 88% in each of their final two bouts this year.
- at Wisconsin: 88.1%
- vs. Washington: 94.4%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
The Badgers are one win away from bowl eligibility, and although they’re a near lock to miss out this week, they’ll have two more chances to secure a dub. Wisconsin finishes the season with a road trip to the Nebraska Cornhuskers and a home defense against the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
- vs. Oregon: 11.9%
- at Nebraska: 44.4%
- vs. Minnesota: 50.8%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is coming off a bye, and although the extra rest is appreciated, it won’t matter much against the Ducks. QB Braedyn Locke has thrown an interception in six consecutive games, and he’ll likely make it seven against a defense that has nine on the year.
The Badgers have been outscored 70-23 over the last two games against the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Iowa Hawkeyes, and facing the No. 1 team in the nation will only exacerbate the situation.
Over the last five games, Oregon’s second-half defense has been dominant, allowing just 6.2 points on average. It has held Ohio State to 10, shut out Purdue, and limited Illinois to six, Michigan to seven, and Maryland to eight.
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Offensively, the Ducks have scored 31+ in all but one game this season (24 against Idaho in Week 1). QB Dillon Gabriel just broke the all-time record for touchdowns responsible for (180) and is 1,504 yards short of being first in passing yards.
To break the record, he’ll need to throw for 300+ in every game or maintain his season average (284.8 ypg) through the national championship. The Badgers’ weakness may be against the run (97th in defensive success rate), but the Ducks should give Gabriel every opportunity to air it out.
The total is sharp, but I lean the under. However, Oregon to win and cover should be a no-sweat lock … as long as the line stays at 14.5 or lower.
Prediction: Oregon 37, Wisconsin 13
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