An old Pac-12 rivalry takes centerstage as a new Big Ten conference game when the Ducks fly south to meet the Bruins. It’s a big line, but our Oregon vs. UCLA prediction indicates which side you should back.
Oregon vs. UCLA Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.
- Spread
Oregon -25.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -2800, UCLA +1300 - Over/Under
55 - Game time
11 p.m. ET - Location
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, Wind 5 mph, low clouds - How to Watch
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If Charles Dickens had been a college football fan, he would have coined this one “A Tale of Two Programs,” as it is the best of times for the Ducks and the worst of times for the Bruins.
Oregon finally looked like the preseason darling many thought could contend for a Big Ten title, and UCLA has shown they are a program amid a rebuild following the move to the Big Ten and departure of coach Chip Kelly.
Historically, these teams have hit the over in four of the last five matchups. Thus, the over of 55 looks very attainable, especially with both offenses showing enough life that a shutout doesn’t seem likely despite Oregon having the better defense.
What does stand out in this matchup is a spread of 24 points in Oregon’s favor. It’s a big line for a conference game, and the public betting shows some hesitation likely because of those factors.
However, the Ducks have scored 36 points per game and seemed to snap out of their early-season funk against Oregon State by putting up 49 points. Dillon Gabriel is settling in nicely at quarterback, and the Ducks can score in a variety of methods.
UCLA has been less efficient, scoring just 15.3 points per game with the largest output being 17 last week against LSU. The over and spread make for good plays in this matchup.
Prediction for Oregon vs. UCLA
Gabriel should continue his efficient play despite Oregon’s slow start in finding the end zone. He’s been remarkably consistent, boasting an 80% completion rate and six touchdowns with no interceptions so far.
Expect Jordan James to have a solid outing against UCLA. He’s averaging 6.43 yards per carry and has found the end zone three times this season, two of which came against Oregon State as the Ducks’ offensive line began to gel. While UCLA’s defense is limiting opponents to just 3.25 yards per carry, they’ve given up three rushing touchdowns to pass-heavy teams, making this a prime opportunity for James to make an impact.
Keep an eye on the matchup between Rico Flores and Tez Johnson.
Both receivers are capable of big plays, but Flores will need a standout performance from Ethan Garbers to stay competitive. Garbers has struggled with consistency, throwing more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three) and completing just 56.7% of his passes.
If Garbers doesn’t elevate his game, it could be a long day for the Bruins. Expect Oregon to control the pace and ultimately secure the victory.
The numbers don’t show much hope for the Bruins. They’ve struggled with turnovers this season, and while the Ducks haven’t exactly lit the scoring sheets up with takeaways, the Bruins have been fine giving teams a boost in that regard. UCLA sits at -3 on the season, the wrong end of the turnover differential.
Oregon’s problems haven’t come in moving the ball, they’ve come in converting drives into touchdowns. Just two drives ended up in the red zone against Boise State, and while explosive plays are a part of the Ducks’ game plan, so should be scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
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UCLA has been a mixed bag there, allowing Indiana to score on every trip to the red zone while holding Hawaii and LSU to field goals on two possessions each.
While the Bruins’ defense has done well to limit the run, they’re allowing opponents to convert over 50% of third downs. And if you take away the season opener against Hawaii, that number goes even higher.
UCLA has to find a way to do what Boise State did and hold the Ducks to just 33% on third downs if they want to have a chance.
Ultimately, there aren’t many areas the Bruins can point at and claim they have an edge. The spread looks large but upon further review, it’s not as large as it could be had Oregon played up to full potential in all three games already this season.
The Ducks should win this one handily.
Prediction: Oregon 41, UCLA 17
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