Two months back, the Week 10 showdown between the Oregon Ducks and Michigan Wolverines was billed as one of the marquee matchups of the new conference shakeup.
But the hype has simmered, with one team falling short of expectations. Nevertheless, the Big House sets the stage. Can the Wolverines spoil the No. 1 team’s unbeaten streak? See where we stand in this Oregon vs. Michigan prediction.
Oregon vs. Michigan Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -12 - Spread
Oregon -15 - Moneyline
Oregon -650, Michigan +470 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 ET - Location
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, Mich. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, sunny, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
Just the second-biggest Big Ten matchup of the afternoon, the Ducks go on the road in a hostile environment to play a Michigan team that has certainly changed since last year’s CFP National Championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread being -15 in Oregon’s favor is intriguing, as it’s hovering around that two-touchdown mark. The Ducks are on a roll, covering three straight games and two of three road games in 2024. With a total of 45 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 30-15 in favor of the Ducks.
Oregon’s Winning Probability
After making easy work of Illinois on Saturday, Oregon is well on its way to an undefeated season. According to CFN’s FPM, the Ducks have a win probability of over 81% in each remaining game, including an 81.6% chance to beat Michigan, giving them a 63% chance to go undefeated.
- vs. Maryland: 98.0%
- at Wisconsin: 83.5%
- vs. Washington: 94.7%
- vs. Michigan: 87.4%
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Michigan has an 18.4% chance of overcoming the Ducks at home. It’s one of three games in which the Wolverines will be huge underdogs, with a winning probability of less than 25%. They need one more win for a bowl game, but there’s just one obvious opportunity left to get to six wins.
- at Indiana: 21.8%
- vs. Northwestern: 88.1%
- at Ohio State: 12.6%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Michigan
Michigan’s 24-17 victory over rival Michigan State wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows, as a post-game brawl cast a shadow over the win and may lead to player suspensions.
And the road doesn’t get any smoother for the 5-3 Wolverines. Of their four remaining games, three are against teams with just one combined loss.
Up first is No. 1 Oregon, and the Ducks are flying high, covering the spread in three straight games, including two against ranked opponents.
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For Michigan, the story remains the same. The Wolverines are entirely one-dimensional, ranking 129th in the nation in yards per pass attempt.
Unlike some teams struggling with the pass, Michigan’s ground game is merely decent, sitting 47th in yards per rush. These numbers don’t match up well against a tough Oregon defense.
There’s no doubt Oregon is the stronger team, but the Ducks still have to go into Ann Arbor and execute.
I’m liking the way the Ducks are playing, especially as Dillon Gabriel and the passing attack find their rhythm and explosiveness again. I don’t see Michigan’s offense sustaining enough drives, which means their defense may wear down and struggle to keep it close.
We knew the Wolverines would face challenges this season, but few predicted they’d be this severe. If Oregon brings their best, it could get ugly. My only question is whether Michigan can score enough to push it over the total.
I lean toward no. Ducks dominate.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Michigan 9
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