Two months ago, the Week 10 clash between the Oregon Ducks and Michigan Wolverines was touted as a marquee matchup amid the new conference shakeup.
But as the season progressed, one team’s performance hasn’t quite matched the preseason hype. Even so, the Big House will host an intense showdown. Can the Wolverines break the No. 1 team’s unbeaten streak? Here’s where things stand in this Oregon vs. Michigan prediction.
Oregon vs. Michigan Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. Michigan odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -12 - Spread
Oregon -14.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -700, Michigan +500 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Nov. 2, 3:30 ET - Location
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, Mich. - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, sunny, 9 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
Just the second-biggest Big Ten matchup of the afternoon, the Ducks go on the road in a hostile environment to play a Michigan team that has certainly changed since last year’s CFP National Championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread being -15 in Oregon’s favor is intriguing, as it’s hovering around that two-touchdown mark. The Ducks are on a roll, covering three straight games and two of three road games in 2024. With a total of 45 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 30-15 in favor of the Ducks.
Oregon’s Winning Probability
After making easy work of Illinois on Saturday, Oregon is well on its way to an undefeated season. According to CFN’s FPM, the Ducks have a win probability of over 81% in each remaining game, including an 81.6% chance to beat Michigan, giving them a 63% chance to go undefeated.
- vs. Maryland: 98.0%
- at Wisconsin: 83.5%
- vs. Washington: 94.7%
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Michigan has an 18.4% chance of overcoming the Ducks at home. It’s one of three games in which the Wolverines will be huge underdogs, with a winning probability of less than 25%. They need one more win for a bowl game, but there’s just one obvious opportunity left to get to six wins.
- at Indiana: 21.8%
- vs. Northwestern: 88.1%
- at Ohio State: 12.6%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Michigan
Michigan’s 24-17 win over rival Michigan State wasn’t all smooth sailing. A post-game brawl cast a cloud over the victory and could lead to player suspensions.
The path doesn’t get easier for the 5-3 Wolverines, either. Three of their four remaining opponents have only one combined loss.
First up: No. 1 Oregon, who’s on a roll, covering the spread in three straight games, two of which were against ranked teams.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
For Michigan, the narrative hasn’t changed. They’re one-dimensional, ranking 129th in the nation in yards per pass attempt.
And while other teams may struggle with their passing game, Michigan’s ground attack isn’t dominant either, ranking 47th in yards per rush—stats that don’t stack up well against Oregon’s stout defense.
Oregon is clearly the stronger team on paper, but they’ll still need to execute in Ann Arbor.
I’m impressed by the Ducks’ recent form, especially as Dillon Gabriel and the passing game regain their rhythm and explosiveness. I don’t see Michigan’s offense stringing together enough drives, which could lead to their defense wearing down as the game goes on.
We knew Michigan was in for some tests this season, but few could’ve predicted challenges this tough. If Oregon plays their best, it could get rough for the Wolverines. My only question: can Michigan score enough to push it over the total?
I’m leaning toward no. Ducks dominate.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Michigan 9
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.