The Boise State Broncos are officially locked into the Mountain West Conference Football Championship Game, but that doesn’t mean their trip to Laramie, Wyo., was without drama. Star Ashton Jeanty got hurt, and we got our first glimpse of how the Broncos can struggle without him.
Who comes out on top? Our Oregon State vs. Boise State prediction breaks it all down—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they close the book on the 2024 college football season.
Oregon State vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All Oregon State vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -11 - Spread
Boise State -19 - Moneyline
Boise State -1050, Oregon State +675 - Over/Under
57.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
28 degrees, sunny, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Friday marks just the 11th all-time matchup between the Broncos and Beavers, although they’ll become a little more familiar with each other when Boise State joins Oregon State in the Pac-12 from the 2026 college football season. Although the road team won the last time they met (2022) to take a 6-4 overall lead, the Broncos are a substantial favorite on Friday.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Boise State is yet to lose a game as a favorite this season, with their only defeat coming as a significant underdog against the Oregon Ducks. While they’ve failed to cover in five games as a double-digit spread favorite, Spencer Danielson’s team is 3-1 ATS on “the Blue,” and will be looking to add style points to their resume as the final College Football Playoff rankings draw near.
Oregon State’s Winning Probability
Winning Saturday has to feel satisfying for a team that battled injuries all season after already lacking depth due to a transfer portal exodus. Now, they’ll look to spoil Boise State’s College Football Playoff hopes. The Beavers will have a win probability of 19.8%, per CFN’s FPM. If they can get the win, they’ll be bowl-eligible.
- at Boise State: 19.8%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Boise State is almost at home plate. The Broncos will make the College Football Playoff if they win their next two, and that starts with Oregon State, a team they have an 80.2% chance to beat, per our metric.
- vs. Oregon State: 80.2%
Prediction for Oregon State vs. Boise State
I’m willing to write off anything that happens at Wyoming, but Boise State’s performance in a second half mostly spent without Jeanty at least gives me pause. The Broncos just couldn’t get anything going without their superstar running back.
Eventually, Jeanty came back off the bench to do ridiculous things worthy of an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony, but the fact that he’s the only offense the Broncos have doesn’t bode well down the road.
But what about on Friday? Jeanty might be enough.
Oregon State’s rushing defense isn’t very good, to say the least. While the Beavers have played few rushing-heavy attacks, they’re still giving up 5.3 yards per carry, 117th in the country. We’ve seen teams like the Air Force Falcons run all over them this season.
As long as Jeanty is healthy, expect the Heisman contender to get plenty of touches, probably 30 or more.
But more importantly, I don’t think Oregon State’s patchwork offensive line can block the Boise State front. They typically do a good job of getting the ball out early, but the Boise State linebackers should be able to make open field tackles and make it difficult for the Beavers to create consistent offense.
I lean toward the under, but Jeanty has the ability to break off two or three big ones in this one; if he does, he can push it over.
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Either way, I like the matchups here and expect the Broncos to take full advantage of a Beavers team coming off a huge win on a short week. The line is weird, but I do like the Broncos, and Jeanty, to run wild.
Broncos roll.
Prediction: Boise State 37, Oregon State 15
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