The Boise State Broncos are officially locked into the Mountain West Conference Football Championship Game, but that doesn’t mean their trip to Laramie, Wyo., was without drama. Star Ashton Jeanty got hurt, and we got our first glimpse of how the Broncos can struggle without him.
There’s no margin for error, and with the Oregon State Beavers coming to Boise, Idaho, the Broncos need a win. Can the Broncos just keep winning on their way to the College Football Playoff? Find out our thoughts in this Oregon State vs. Boise State prediction.
Oregon State vs. Boise State Betting Preview
All Oregon State vs. Boise State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Boise State -11 - Spread
Boise State -18.5 - Moneyline
Boise State -1100, Oregon State +680 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 29, Noon ET - Location
Albertsons Stadium | Boise, Idaho - Predicted Weather at Kick
28 degrees, sunny, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Each of these teams is coming off very different thrillers on Saturday in Week 13, as Oregon State came back to win the pseudo-Pac-12 championship over the Washington State Cougars while Boise State survived a scare at altitude in Laramie.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The early spread is strange in that it’s not close to an important number. I’m interested to see which way this line moves this week, but Oregon State’s defensive struggles are contributing to the large spread. At 18.5 points and an over/under of 55.5 points, Vegas implies a final score near 37-18, in favor of the Broncos.
Oregon State’s Winning Probability
Winning Saturday has to feel satisfying for a team that battled injuries all season after already lacking depth due to a transfer portal exodus. Now, they’ll look to spoil Boise State’s College Football Playoff hopes. The Beavers will have a win probability of 19.8%, per CFN’s FPM. If they can get the win, they’ll be bowl-eligible.
- at Boise State: 19.8%
Boise State’s Winning Probability
Boise State is almost at home plate. The Broncos will make the College Football Playoff if they win their next two, and that starts with Oregon State, a team they have an 80.2% chance to beat, per our metric.
- vs. Oregon State: 80.2%
Prediction for Oregon State vs. Boise State
I’m willing to write off anything that happens at Wyoming, but Boise State’s performance in a second half mostly spent without Jeanty at least gives me pause. The Broncos just couldn’t get anything going without their superstar running back.
Eventually, Jeanty came back off the bench to do ridiculous things worthy of an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony, but the fact that he’s the only offense the Broncos have doesn’t bode well down the road.
But what about on Friday? Jeanty might be enough.
Oregon State’s rushing defense isn’t very good, to say the least. While the Beavers have played few rushing-heavy attacks, they’re still giving up 5.3 yards per carry, 117th in the country. We’ve seen teams like the Air Force Falcons run all over them this season.
As long as Jeanty is healthy, expect the Heisman contender to get plenty of touches, probably 30 or more.
But more importantly, I don’t think Oregon State’s patchwork offensive line can block the Boise State front. They typically do a good job of getting the ball out early, but the Boise State linebackers should be able to make open field tackles and make it difficult for the Beavers to create consistent offense.
I lean toward the under, but Jeanty has the ability to break off two or three big ones in this one; if he does, he can push it over.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Either way, I like the matchups here and expect the Broncos to take full advantage of a Beavers team coming off a huge win on a short week. The line is weird, but I do like the Broncos, and Jeanty, to run wild.
Broncos roll.
Prediction: Boise State 37, Oregon State 15
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.