Week 8 brings us just the fourth meeting between the Oregon Ducks and Purdue Boilermakers, and only the third since 1980. With the Ducks taking the last two matchups, can the home team pull off an upset this time around?
Let’s dive into this under-the-radar Big Ten clash with a comprehensive breakdown of the odds and more in our Oregon vs. Purdue prediction.
Oregon vs. Purdue Betting Preview
All Oregon vs. Purdue odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -23.5 - Spread
Oregon -30 - Moneyline
Oregon -6500, Purdue +2000 - Over/Under
61 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Friday, Oct. 18 - Location
Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Ind. - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
Fox
The total has increased by a half-point since opening, but the spread has seen the most movement from Oregon -25 to -30.
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Both programs are 2-4 against the spread this year, and the over/under trends are similarly split:
- The total has gone UNDER in six of Oregon’s last nine games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of Purdue’s last five contests.
Oregon’s Winning Probability
After defeating Ohio State in Week 7, it should be no surprise the Ducks are favored the rest of the way, beginning with a 95.3% win probability against Purdue.
- vs. Illinois: 91.7%
- at Michigan: 74.6%
- vs. Maryland: 95.9%
- at Wisconsin: 88.1%
- vs. Washington: 94.3%
Purdue’s Winning Probability
Even after pushing Illinois to the brink last week, the Boilermakers are in for a tough final stretch, owning a 4.7% win probability vs. the Ducks and three more sub-10% rates in their final five games.
- vs. Northwestern: 57.4%
- at Ohio State: 2.8%
- vs. Penn State: 5.9%
- at Michigan State: 35.4%
- at Indiana: 8.3%
Prediction for Oregon vs. Purdue
These teams couldn’t be further apart in the Big Ten standings. Oregon sits at 6-0 (3-0 in conference play), while Purdue struggles at 1-5 (0-3), on track for its worst season since 2015’s 2-10 finish.
That said, the Boilermakers are no strangers to pulling off massive upsets, like their 2018 stunner against No. 2 Ohio State, winning 49-20. This could be a classic trap game for the Ducks, who are riding high after a big win over Ohio State at Autzen Stadium.
With back-to-back ranked matchups against Illinois and Michigan looming after Week 8, Oregon can’t afford to overlook Purdue.
Just ask the Fighting Illini, who needed overtime to edge out the Boilermakers 50-49 in Week 7. After firing offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, Purdue head coach Ryan Walters took over play-calling duties, even with a backup quarterback under center.
The result? A 49-point outburst that starter Hudson Card hadn’t come close to achieving, earning Ryan Browne the starting nod for Friday night’s matchup with Oregon.
“The way he played, it would be unfair not to [start him],” Walters said of Browne. “So, you know, we’ll see about Hudson (Card)’s availability moving forward.”
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Browne shone against Illinois, completing 18 of 26 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns without an interception while adding 118 yards on 17 carries. His dual-threat ability gives a boost to Purdue’s offense, and while he’s likely to be challenged by Oregon’s stout defense, he could still guide a few scoring drives.
The real problem for Purdue is its defense, which ranks last in the Big Ten in yards allowed and gives up an average of 39 points per game. Even if the Ducks start slow, they should come away with a comfortable win—though it might be closer than the spread suggests. Take the Oregon moneyline, Purdue ATS, and the over in this one.
Prediction: Oregon 41, Purdue 20
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