It will be hard to find a game across the college football landscape featuring two talented teams as hungry for a win as the Ole Miss Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks. The Rebels are coming off a disappointing SEC opener against Kentucky and are desperate to make sure their College Football Playoff hopes don’t slip away.
On the other side, South Carolina is still angry about letting a potential LSU win slip through its grasp. Williams-Brice Stadium will be rowdy, and the Gamecocks will be ready, though a bit banged up. Before you bet, take a look at our Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction.
Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. South Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -7 - Spread
Ole Miss -9.5 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -340, South Carolina +270 - Over/Under
53 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, partly sunny, seven mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and the Vegas spread differ only slightly on this one, as both have the Gamecocks between a seven and 10-point home underdog. With a spread of 9.5 points and a total of 53, Vegas implies a final score close to 31-21 in favor of the Rebels.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
This is a clash of styles, as South Carolina’s run-first, ball-control offense will square off against Lane Kiffin’s high-octane Ole Miss offense. However, the defenses will play a vital role in this one, and there are two particular matchups of note that could decide the outcome.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower of Ole Miss’ chances than Vegas, as the metric has the Rebels as seven-point favorites. That translates to a win probability of 70.3%.
That represents the Rebels’ third-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, behind games against LSU and Georgia. Ole Miss’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at South Carolina: 70.3%
- at LSU: 37.4%
- vs Oklahoma: 75.5%
- at Arkansas: 75.1%
- vs. Georgia: 39.4%
- at Florida: 78.1%
- vs Mississippi State: 94.4%
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, South Carolina has a 29.7% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes South Carolina, but a brutal stretch of schedule means the Gamecocks will be heavy underdogs in five of their remaining eight games.
In fact, Ole Miss represents only the fourth-hardest game remaining on USC’s schedule. The path to a bowl game or better will need to be paved with an upset or two, as the Gamecocks have a win probability of less than 40% in five of their remaining eight games.
South Carolina’s win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Ole Miss: 29.7%
- at Alabama: 6.5%
- at Oklahoma: 32.3%
- vs. Texas A&M: 49.6%
- at Vanderbilt: 63.1%
- vs. Missouri: 25.4%
- vs. Wofford: 96.7%
- at Clemson: 19.6%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. South Carolina
Prior to last weekend, I had this pegged as a terrible matchup for the Gamecocks. I assumed the ball-control offense and strong defense wouldn’t work against Ole Miss’ potent offense.
However, Kentucky confounded the Rebels Saturday in a way that is very similar to how South Carolina will try to do things.
USC’s defensive front is one of the best in college football, especially off the edge. Ole Miss loves to get the ball out quickly, but Kentucky took that away from the offense, forcing quarterback Jaxson Dart to hold the ball nearly .75 seconds longer per throw.
If the Gamecocks can do that, the Rebels’ massive offensive tackles won’t be able to contain the edge pressure.
However, Kiffin will adjust, and it’s likely Ole Miss will revert to the quick game and run the ball more often against a South Carolina defense that has been susceptible to each this season.
On the flip side, South Carolina wants to run the ball. The health of starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers and starting running back Raheim Sanders are both in doubt. We should know more later this week, but I’m told Sellers should be good to go, while Sanders’ status won’t be known until later this week.
Ole Miss’ defensive front has been terrifying this season, especially against the run — which is where this game will be won and lost.
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The Gamecocks were able to run all over LSU’s otherwise staunch defensive front, more than doubling the Tigers’ average rushing yards allowed. If South Carolina can stay ahead of the chains by moving the ball on the ground against the nation’s No. 2 rushing defense, this game could have a similar script to last week’s Kentucky loss for Ole Miss.
However, I expect the Rebels to do enough defensively to slow the Gamecocks’ rushing attack and force them into third-and-long, where the Rebels’ defense has excelled and the Gamecocks’ offense hasn’t.
Kiffin will emphasize the quick throws and running game on offense to neutralize South Carolina’s pass rush. Expect the Gamecocks to get home a few times, but it won’t be consistent enough to completely stifle the Rebels’ attack.
Take the under here and lean Ole Miss, as I don’t imagine Kiffin will lose the same way in back-to-back weeks. South Carolina is a good team, this is just not a good matchup.
Prediction: Ole Miss 27, South Carolina 16
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