One of the dumbest announcing clichés is, “Throw out the records when these teams play.” It’s overused and typically inaccurate to imply that the quality of a team doesn’t matter in a rivalry game. Except … that may actually be true of the Egg Bowl, a game that might hold the title of the weirdest rivalry in college football.
You truly don’t know what’s going to happen when the Ole Miss Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs meet on the gridiron, but we’re going to take our best guess. Find out our thoughts on the spread and total in this Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State prediction.
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -24 - Spread
Ole Miss -26.5 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -4500, Mississippi State +1600 - Over/Under
60.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Davis Wade Stadium | Starkville, Miss. - Predicted Weather at Kick
49 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
Things have certainly changed in the last week for Ole Miss. The Rebels have gone from an outside shot at winning the SEC championship to being on the outside looking in of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Now, an Egg Bowl win could be as good as it gets for Lane Kiffin’s squad. On the other hand, Mississippi State is looking for its first SEC win of the season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The early spread is indicative of the perceived gap between the two Magnolia State teams. Even after Ole Miss lost to the Florida Gators, the early line didn’t change all that much. The total of 60.5 shows the strength of these offenses and the weakness of the Bulldogs’ defensive unit.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Despite the loss to drop to 8-3, Ole Miss is still an overwhelming favorite to win the Egg Bowl, with a 95.7% chance to win the game, per CFN’s FPM. Even with a win, it’s highly unlikely the Rebels can make the College Football Playoff, even with a win.
- at Mississippi State: 95.7%
Mississippi State’s Winning Probability
Not much has gone right for Mississippi State this season, and the Bulldogs go into the Egg Bowl with nothing more to play for than pride, a chance to beat their rivals, and The Golden Egg. Without some of the craziness that accompanies the Egg Bowl, the Bulldogs don’t have much of a chance to win, just 4.3%, per our metric.
- vs. Ole Miss: 4.3%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Traditionally played on Thanksgiving night, the Egg Bowl was moved to Black Friday to capitalize on a better television window. That simply means you’ll have a bit of time to recover from your turkey coma before partaking in one of the best rivalries in college football.
It’s not just that Ole Miss and Mississippi State hate each other, it’s that the Egg Bowl is weird. There have been so many wild moments, just in the last decade, that simply don’t happen often in other rivalry games. If the game ends up not being memorable, it’s the exception.
I joked as early as Week 7 that we should manually manipulate the win probabilities for Ole Miss and Mississippi State in the FPM to give each a 50% chance to win. As a staff, we joked about making it 60-40, since Ole Miss is so much better this year.
So, yes, Ole Miss is superior, but while the Rebels should run away with this, I wouldn’t be completely shocked to see the Bulldogs keep this close, as they’ve done a few times. And if Jaxson Dart plays the way he did in the final five minutes of the Florida game, the Rebels won’t be safe even from the lowly Bulldogs.
In that final stretch, Dart was as bad as I’ve ever seen him. In his final two drives, Dart threw two interceptions, had another dropped, and a fourth called back by a penalty.
I’m willing to bet that Dart didn’t magically become terrible, but it’s at least a storyline worth keeping an eye on.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Mississippi State has the offensive firepower with freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. at quarterback to give the Ole Miss defense problems. The offense certainly hasn’t been the issue for the Bulldogs, and I think the unit can have some success here.
The defense, on the other hand, makes pulling off the upset an almost impossible task.
Ultimately, though the Rebels are likely out of the playoff hunt, I don’t expect the team to lay an egg (pun intended) on Friday. The talent disparity is just too much for the Bulldogs to overcome.
Unless Dart has another stretch like the end of last week, Ole Miss should win this going away, but it’ll be weird and I think the Bulldogs cover. Just grab the line before it drops.
Prediction: Ole Miss 44, Mississippi State 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.