You shouldn’t have needed any more evidence that the SEC is wild this year, but just to prove it, the conference had a wild Week 6, with multiple high-level teams falling in crazy upsets. With just three teams still undefeated in conference play and just one overall, the SEC (and the College Football Playoff) is wide open and two contenders have a chance to move to the upper tier of the league Saturday.
Is there a betting advantage between the Rebels and Tigers? Find out in our Ole Miss vs. LSU prediction.
Ole Miss vs. LSU Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. LSU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
LSU -3 - Spread
Ole Miss -3.5 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -175, LSU +145 - Over/Under
62 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louis. - Predicted Weather at Kick
74 degrees, clear, 3 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas disagree strongly on this one, as Vegas favors Ole Miss by more than a field goal, and FPM leans toward LSU at home. With a spread of 3.5 points and a total of 62, Vegas implies a final score close to 33-29 in favor of Ole Miss.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Ole Miss has one of the best records for covering the spread this season, going 5-1, with their only failure to cover coming in the loss to Kentucky. The Rebels have been a double-digit favorite in every game this year before this week. LSU has only covered the spread once this season (against South Alabama). This is their first game of the year as an underdog.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower on Ole Miss than Vegas.
FPM has Ole Miss as a three-point underdog, giving it a win probability of 42.6%. The Rebels are sizable favorites in every game this season other than against Georgia, with this LSU game being the most difficult game on the schedule
- at LSU: 42.6%
- vs. Oklahoma: 76.6%
- at Arkansas: 74.6%
- vs. Georgia: 45.7%
- at Florida: 83.5%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.1%
LSU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, LSU has a 57.4% chance to win on Saturday. The Tigers have one of the largest home-field advantages in the system, and the metric has them as favorites against every team remaining on the schedule except Alabama.
- vs. Ole Miss: 57.4%
- at Arkansas: 74.9%
- at Texas A&M: 54.3%
- vs. Alabama: 44.4%
- at Florida: 85.9%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 83.5%
- vs. Oklahoma: 79.3%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. LSU
Both LSU and Ole Miss exited the first part of their schedules with just one blip, but they did so in very different ways. The Tigers struggled early against South Carolina, UCLA, and even Nicholls before winning late, while the Rebels blitzed five of their six opponents early and cruised to easy victories.
Each team lost a heartbreaker late to a quality opponent.
This is a pivotal game for each, as the Rebels enter a bye week next week and the Tigers have their last game in Baton Rouge until November.
Both offenses have been impressive this season, while the Rebel defense has really clamped down on opponents, specifically in the running game.
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The game here lies on the shoulders of the quarterbacks. Because of the surrounding talent, there’s more pressure on Garrett Nussmeier than Jaxson Dart.
Nussmeier has been better under pressure and he’s faced more of it than Dart, who has struggled with defenders in his face, as rare as that’s been.
It’s a game-script game. If Ole Miss can get out to a hot start, the defense is too talented for LSU to pull its late-game magic against. We saw that against South Carolina when the offense didn’t play all that well, but the game was never in question as the Rebel defense pinned its ears back and overwhelmed the Gamecock front.
If there’s anything concerning about that game, it’s that the Gamecocks ran decently well against a Rebel front that was second in yards per rush. Each team may look to keep the ball on the ground a bit more to try to help out the defense.
I feel more confident that this game will not reach its total than I do in picking the winning team. I have to pick here, and I trust Nussmeier slightly more than Dart, who I think might put the ball in harm’s way if it turns into a tight, back-and-forth contest.
Personally, I’m abstaining from the spread and just enjoying the game, but on the record, FPM loves the Tigers.
Prediction: LSU 26, Ole Miss 24
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