The Florida Gators pulled off the upset they needed to put themselves in a position to make a bowl. However, their schedule continues to do them no favors, as they’re right back in The Swamp to face a fantastic Ole Miss Rebels team, one coming off a bye, no less.
Who will prevail? Our Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction dives into all the details—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both programs as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -6.5 - Spread
Ole Miss -10 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -375, Florida +295 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium | Gainesville, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This is an intriguing game from both sides for two very different reasons. Florida was teetering on the edge of firing Billy Napier early in the season but has overcome a brutal schedule to be one win away from bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Ole Miss lost early in the season but turned things around to put themselves squarely in the College Football Playoff picture.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Rebels haven’t beaten the Gators since 2008, but in recent years, there has been a shift in the SEC power struggle and Ole Miss enters the game as a sizeable favorite. While they’ve lost twice when favored, and Florida has won twice as an underdog, our prediction forecasts a comfortable win that should take the team to an 8-3 record against the spread in the 2024 season.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Ole Miss should be in the College Football Playoff if the Rebels win out, but we don’t know that for sure. CFN’s FPM gives the Rebels a 67.7% chance of beating the Gators. Then it’s the Egg Bowl. We have a percentage for that, but it’s the Egg Bowl, so I’m not sure our numbers matter.
- at Florida: 67.7%
- vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
Florida’s Winning Probability
Florida got the upset it needed to likely make a bowl. The Florida State Seminoles rivalry game that looked so daunting a few months ago now looks to be a likely win, but the Gators would still love to pull off another upset this week to make 7-5 a real possibility. FPM gives the Gators a 32.3% chance to win on Saturday, implying a spread of about 6.5 points.
- vs. Ole Miss: 32.3%
- at Florida State: 89%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Florida
As vocal as I can be with my takes, I don’t think I’ve shared my thoughts on Ole Miss enough this season. I believe the Rebels are the best team in the SEC by a decent margin. I’d make them a favorite of at least four points on a neutral field against any other team in the conference.
With all due respect to Florida, I don’t consider the Gators one of those 2-3 teams that could keep it close with the Rebels when Ole Miss is firing on all cylinders. That being said, I think Florida’s schedule has tricked people into believing that the Gators are a bad team. They’re not, and they’re capable of beating most of the teams in the SEC.
But I don’t think Ole Miss is one of those teams. So, I’m interested to see if the Rebels can prove it on Saturday.
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There are few quarterbacks in the country playing as well as Jaxson Dart right now, and he’s gaining rapport with his transfer receivers as the season progresses.
The Rebels are an interesting case study for those interested in studying the positive effects of the portal. I surmised in the offseason that the beginning of Ole Miss’ season would dictate the end. A team full of transfers might be more prone to lay down once it’s evident their preseason goals are no longer achievable. I thought that if the Rebels lost a few games early, they could be on quit-watch at the end of the year.
But there’s another side to it. When the team does find success, a team of transfers can grow more from Week 1 to Week 14 than a team with more starting chemistry.
We’re seeing this with the Rebels. They weathered an early storm but have remained in the playoff hunt. We’re seeing the positive effects of more reps together in recent weeks as Ole Miss dismantled both the Arkansas Razorbacks and Georgia Bulldogs.
Ole Miss is substantially better now than it was six weeks ago. And six weeks ago, the Rebels blew out a very good South Carolina Gamecocks team. When Kiffin’s team is at its best, the Rebels are probably the best in the country. We often don’t see that as people love to make jokes about the Rebels’ head coach, but he’s locked in this year.
Dart and the receivers could have a field day against a shaky Gators secondary, while the defensive line can really affect DJ Lagway in a way no other team Florida has faced could.
I don’t know if I’m ready to predict a full blowout, as I have a lot of respect for Florida, but the Gators will have issues on Saturday. I’ll take Ole Miss by a healthy amount, with a late score to push it over the total.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Florida 20
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