The Florida Gators pulled off the upset they desperately needed to keep their bowl hopes alive, but the road ahead doesn’t get any smoother. Next up, they return to The Swamp to face a formidable Ole Miss Rebels squad—rested, recharged after a bye week, and ready to make a statement.
Who takes the win? Our Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction dives deep—breaking down the latest betting odds, key matchups, and what’s at stake for both programs as they battle through the pivotal closing stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -6.5 - Spread
Ole Miss -12 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -440, Florida +340 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium | Gainesville, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This is an intriguing game from both sides for two very different reasons. Florida was teetering on the edge of firing Billy Napier early in the season but has overcome a brutal schedule to be one win away from bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Ole Miss lost early in the season but turned things around to put themselves squarely in the College Football Playoff picture.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Rebels haven’t beaten the Gators since 2008, but in recent years, there has been a shift in the SEC power struggle and Ole Miss enters the game as a sizeable favorite. While they’ve lost twice when favored, and Florida has won twice as an underdog, our prediction forecasts a comfortable win that should take the team to an 8-3 record against the spread in the 2024 season.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Ole Miss should be in the College Football Playoff if the Rebels win out, but we don’t know that for sure. CFN’s FPM gives the Rebels a 67.7% chance of beating the Gators. Then it’s the Egg Bowl. We have a percentage for that, but it’s the Egg Bowl, so I’m not sure our numbers matter.
- at Florida: 67.7%
- vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
Florida’s Winning Probability
Florida got the upset it needed to likely make a bowl. The Florida State Seminoles rivalry game that looked so daunting a few months ago now looks to be a likely win, but the Gators would still love to pull off another upset this week to make 7-5 a real possibility. FPM gives the Gators a 32.3% chance to win on Saturday, implying a spread of about 6.5 points.
- vs. Ole Miss: 32.3%
- at Florida State: 89%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Florida
As opinionated as I can be, I’ll admit—I haven’t given Ole Miss enough credit this season. Let’s change that. I firmly believe the Rebels are the best team in the SEC—and, frankly, it’s not even close. On a neutral field, I’d favor them by at least four points against any other team in the conference.
With all due respect to Florida, the Gators aren’t one of the 2-3 SEC teams capable of hanging with Ole Miss when the Rebels are firing on all cylinders. That said, I think Florida’s schedule has shaped some unfair perceptions. The Gators are far from a bad team—they can beat most SEC opponents.
But Ole Miss isn’t “most teams,” and Saturday is their chance to remind everyone why.
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Few quarterbacks are playing at Jaxson Dart’s level right now, and his chemistry with Ole Miss’ transfer receivers has only improved as the season has progressed.
The Rebels are a prime example of how transformative the transfer portal can be. Coming into the season, I thought their success—or struggles—would define how this experiment with a transfer-heavy roster is judged. A team built this way could easily fall apart if things went south early. But when success builds, so does confidence and cohesion—and that’s exactly what’s happening in Oxford.
Ole Miss weathered its early tests and is now squarely in the playoff conversation. Over the last few weeks, they’ve looked like a team hitting its peak. They dismantled Arkansas, then dominated Georgia, showing just how dangerous they’ve become.
This isn’t the same team we saw six weeks ago. And even six weeks ago, they were good enough to blow out a strong South Carolina squad. When Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are locked in, they might just be the best team in the country. That fact might get overlooked because of Kiffin’s outsized persona, but make no mistake—he’s fully dialed in this year.
Against Florida, Jaxson Dart and the Rebels’ receivers should have a field day against a vulnerable Gators secondary. On the other side, the Ole Miss defensive line has the tools to overwhelm DJ Lagway in ways no opponent has done to Florida yet.
I’m not predicting a complete blowout—I have a lot of respect for what Florida brings to the table—but I think the Gators are in for a long night. Ole Miss wins comfortably, with a late score pushing the total over.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Florida 20
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