It’ll be tough to find another matchup this weekend featuring two teams as eager for a win as the Ole Miss Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks. The Rebels are coming off a frustrating SEC opener against Kentucky and are determined to keep their College Football Playoff hopes don’t slip away.
Meanwhile, South Carolina is still reeling from a heartbreaking loss to LSU that slipped through their fingers. Expect Williams-Brice Stadium to be electric, and the Gamecocks to be fired up—albeit a little bruised. Before placing your bets, check out our Ole Miss vs. South Carolina prediction.
Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. South Carolina odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -7 - Spread
Ole Miss -10 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -360, South Carolina +280 - Over/Under
53 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC - Predicted Weather at Kick
82 degrees, partly sunny, seven mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and the Vegas spread differed slightly on this one early, but late money on the Rebels has pushed this one to a full 10 points for Ole Miss.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
This is a clash of styles, as South Carolina’s run-first, ball-control offense will square off against Lane Kiffin’s high-octane Ole Miss offense. However, the defenses will play a vital role in this one, and there are two particular matchups of note that could decide the outcome.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower of Ole Miss’ chances than Vegas, as the metric has the Rebels as seven-point favorites. That translates to a win probability of 70.3%.
That represents the Rebels’ third-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, behind games against LSU and Georgia.
- at South Carolina: 70.3%
- at LSU: 37.4%
- vs Oklahoma: 75.5%
- at Arkansas: 75.1%
- vs. Georgia: 44.4%
- at Florida: 78.1%
- vs Mississippi State: 94.9%
South Carolina’s Winning Probability
Conversely, South Carolina has a 29.7% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes South Carolina, but a brutal stretch of schedule means the Gamecocks will be heavy underdogs in five of their remaining eight games.
In fact, Ole Miss represents only the fourth-hardest game remaining on USC’s schedule. The path to a bowl game or better will need to be paved with an upset or two, as the Gamecocks have a win probability of less than 40% in five of their remaining eight games.
- vs. Ole Miss: 29.7%
- at Alabama: 6.5%
- at Oklahoma: 32.3%
- vs. Texas A&M: 49.6%
- at Vanderbilt: 65.7%
- vs. Missouri: 25.4%
- vs. Wofford: 99.2%
- at Clemson: 19.6%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. South Carolina
Heading into last weekend, I thought this would be a nightmare matchup for the Gamecocks. I figured their ball-control style and solid defense would be outmatched by Ole Miss’ high-octane offense.
But Kentucky threw a curveball, disrupting the Rebels in a way that South Carolina will try to replicate.
The Gamecocks’ defensive front is one of the best in the country, especially on the edges. Ole Miss likes to get the ball out quickly, but Kentucky managed to force Jaxson Dart to hang onto it for nearly 0.75 seconds longer per throw.
If South Carolina can generate similar pressure, Ole Miss’ bulky offensive tackles could struggle against those edge rushers.
That said, Lane Kiffin will make adjustments, likely leaning more on quick passes and the run game against a South Carolina defense that’s had issues defending both.
For South Carolina, the key is on the ground. The health of starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers and running back Raheim Sanders is still uncertain. We’ll get more clarity later this week, but from what I’m hearing, Sellers should be good to go, while Sanders remains questionable.
Ole Miss’ defensive front has been a force against the run all year, and that could be the deciding factor.
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The Gamecocks ran all over LSU’s stout run defense, putting up more than double the Tigers’ typical rushing yards allowed. If South Carolina can move the chains on the ground against the nation’s second-best run defense, we could see a repeat of Kentucky’s upset last week.
Still, I think the Rebels’ defense will do just enough to slow down South Carolina’s rushing attack and force them into third-and-long situations, where Ole Miss excels and South Carolina falters.
Kiffin will look to neutralize South Carolina’s pass rush with quick throws and a strong run game. The Gamecocks will create some pressure, but not consistently enough to derail the Rebels’ offense.
Lean towards the under and back Ole Miss here—I don’t see Kiffin dropping two in a row the same way. South Carolina’s a good team, but this matchup just isn’t in their favor.
Prediction: Ole Miss 27, South Carolina 16
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