The Florida Gators secured the upset they desperately needed to stay in the hunt for a bowl game. But their path doesn’t get any easier. Up next, they’re back in The Swamp to take on a strong Ole Miss Rebels squad, fresh off a bye week and ready to roll.
Who comes out on top? Our Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction breaks it all down—covering everything from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both programs as they navigate the crucial final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ole Miss vs. Florida Betting Preview
All Ole Miss vs. Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -6.5 - Spread
Ole Miss -11.5 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -440, Florida +340 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium | Gainesville, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
63 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This is an intriguing game from both sides for two very different reasons. Florida was teetering on the edge of firing Billy Napier early in the season but has overcome a brutal schedule to be one win away from bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Ole Miss lost early in the season but turned things around to put themselves squarely in the College Football Playoff picture.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Rebels haven’t beaten the Gators since 2008, but in recent years, there has been a shift in the SEC power struggle and Ole Miss enters the game as a sizeable favorite. While they’ve lost twice when favored, and Florida has won twice as an underdog, our prediction forecasts a comfortable win that should take the team to an 8-3 record against the spread in the 2024 season.
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Ole Miss should be in the College Football Playoff if the Rebels win out, but we don’t know that for sure. CFN’s FPM gives the Rebels a 67.7% chance of beating the Gators. Then it’s the Egg Bowl. We have a percentage for that, but it’s the Egg Bowl, so I’m not sure our numbers matter.
- at Florida: 67.7%
- vs. Mississippi State: 97.2%
Florida’s Winning Probability
Florida got the upset it needed to likely make a bowl. The Florida State Seminoles rivalry game that looked so daunting a few months ago now looks to be a likely win, but the Gators would still love to pull off another upset this week to make 7-5 a real possibility. FPM gives the Gators a 32.3% chance to win on Saturday, implying a spread of about 6.5 points.
- vs. Ole Miss: 32.3%
- at Florida State: 89%
Prediction for Ole Miss vs. Florida
As opinionated as I can be, I don’t think I’ve given Ole Miss enough credit this season. Let me fix that. I believe the Rebels are the best team in the SEC—and it’s not particularly close. On a neutral field, I’d favor them by at least four points against any other team in the conference.
With all due respect to Florida, I don’t think the Gators are one of the 2-3 teams in the SEC that could keep it competitive when Ole Miss is playing at its peak. That said, I do think Florida’s schedule has skewed perception. The Gators aren’t a bad team—they’re capable of beating most SEC opponents.
But Ole Miss isn’t “most teams,” and Saturday will be the chance for the Rebels to show why.
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Few quarterbacks in the country are playing at Jaxson Dart’s level right now, and his chemistry with Ole Miss’ transfer receivers has only grown as the season has progressed.
The Rebels are a fascinating example of how impactful the transfer portal can be. Coming into the season, I assumed their success—or lack thereof—would dictate the narrative for the rest of their year. A team built on transfers might be more prone to packing it in if things went south early. But on the flip side, success can lead to exponential growth, as a team with so many new pieces builds confidence and cohesion week by week.
That’s exactly what’s happening in Oxford. Ole Miss weathered some early challenges and has kept itself firmly in the playoff hunt. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen a team hitting its stride. They dismantled Arkansas and dominated Georgia, showing just how dangerous they’ve become.
This isn’t the same team we saw six weeks ago. And six weeks ago, they still blew out a very good South Carolina squad. When Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are on, they’re arguably the best team in the country. That might get lost in the noise because of Kiffin’s persona, but make no mistake—he’s locked in this year.
Against Florida, Dart and the Rebels’ receivers could light up a vulnerable Gators secondary, while the defensive line has the potential to overwhelm DJ Lagway like no opponent Florida has faced so far.
I’m not ready to call for a complete blowout—I have a lot of respect for what Florida brings to the table—but I think the Gators are in for a tough night. Ole Miss wins by a comfortable margin, with a late score pushing the total over.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Florida 20
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