The Big 12 race is anything but settled as we head into Week 14, but one thing is certain: the Oklahoma State Cowboys won’t be making the trip to Dallas for the conference championship. They won’t be playing in a bowl game either. In fact, the only thing left for the Cowboys to play for is their first Big 12 win of the season.
Things are a little messier for the Colorado Buffaloes. Once in control of their own destiny, they stumbled in Week 13, leaving a four-way tie at the top of the standings. No team is guaranteed a spot in the championship game, even with a win. For the Buffaloes, it’s simple: they need to win and hope the math falls in their favor. Can they hold up their end of the bargain? We break it down in this Oklahoma State vs. Colorado prediction.
Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Betting Preview
All Oklahoma State vs. Colorado odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 26, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Colorado -17 - Spread
Colorado -16.5 - Moneyline
Colorado -750, Oklahoma State +525 - Over/Under
66.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 30, Noon ET - Location
Folsom Field | Boulder, Colo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
35 degrees, partly cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This game is so much more about Colorado than Oklahoma State, but it would be wild if the Cowboys got shut out in Big 12 play after being a trendy pick to make the College Football Playoff. For the Buffaloes, a win would help, but there are still dozens of possibilities in which they could still be left out of the conference championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Buffaloes are near 17-point home favorites, according to both CFN’s FPM and Vegas. With an over-under of 66.5 points, the sportsbooks expect the Buffaloes to go wild offensively, with an implied final score close to 41-25, in favor of Colorado.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
The most lasting impression the Cowboys could leave would be an improbable upset to make the Big 12 Championship picture even more chaotic. They’ll be huge underdogs, with just a 9.8% chance to win, per CFN’s FPM.
- at Colorado: 9.8%
Colorado’s Winning Probability
As previously stated, a win doesn’t guarantee Colorado a spot in the conference championship, but it’d certainly help the odds.
We’ll explore the clearest path later, but all the Buffaloes can do at this point is take care of business in a game they have a 90.2% chance to win.
- vs. Oklahoma State: 90.2%
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. Colorado
Mapping out every scenario that could land Colorado in the Big 12 Championship Game would take hours, but let’s focus on the simplest path.
If Colorado wins and the BYU Cougars lose to the Houston Cougars, the Buffaloes are likely in. Of course, they’d still need to dodge some wild results elsewhere, but that’s the cleanest scenario.
For Colorado fans (or BYU, Iowa State Cyclones, and Arizona State Sun Devils fans), the easiest way to approach this is simple: root for your team to win and for the other contenders at the top to lose. If two of the four teams lose, the remaining two clinch spots. If one wins and the other three lose, that team claims the berth.
Beyond that? It’s a tangled web that’ll take more time to fully sort out. But here’s the kicker: none of this matters if Colorado doesn’t win. (And yes, there’s still a slim chance they could lose and sneak in, but let’s not count on it.)
This is the kind of game where Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter can shine. Oklahoma State has been a disaster against the run, but their pass defense hasn’t exactly been a strength either. In pivotal moments, Colorado leans on its stars, and this moment is about as pivotal as it gets.
The Buffaloes’ defense has struggled against power-running teams—a style Oklahoma State should embrace but hasn’t. The Cowboys’ offense has been all over the place this season, shuffling quarterback Alan Bowman in and out while throwing at the 13th-highest rate in the FBS.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
If Oklahoma State wants a chance, their game plan should be simple: run, run some more, fake a pass, and then run again. They can’t match Colorado’s firepower, so the path to victory relies on Ollie Gordon II having a career day and dominating time of possession.
However, Mike Gundy has been stubborn this season, sticking to an air-it-out approach. Unless he reverts to a more balanced attack, Colorado is poised to roll in this one.
Expect another jaw-dropping performance from Hunter—a potential Heisman moment. I’m predicting 100 yards and two touchdowns on offense, plus an interception on defense. Colorado should win comfortably and then sit back and watch how Saturday unfolds.
Prediction: Colorado 52, Oklahoma State 21
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.