While the Big 12 is far from settled heading into Week 14, we do know that the Oklahoma State Cowboys won’t play in Dallas for the conference championship. We know they won’t play in a bowl. In fact, the only thing the Cowboys can play for is a first win in Big 12 play.
It’s a bit more complicated for the Colorado Buffaloes, who controlled their own destiny but laid an egg in Week 13. There’s a four-way tie at the top, and no team is guaranteed a spot in the championship, even with a win. All the Buffaloes can do is win and hope the math works out. Find out if we think they can do their part with a win in this Oklahoma State vs. Colorado prediction.
Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Betting Preview
All Oklahoma State vs. Colorado odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Colorado -17 - Spread
Colorado -17 - Moneyline
Colorado -800, Oklahoma State +550 - Over/Under
65.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Nov. 30, Noon ET - Location
Folsom Field | Boulder, Colo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
35 degrees, partly cloudy, 4 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
This game is so much more about Colorado than Oklahoma State, but it would be wild if the Cowboys got shut out in Big 12 play after being a trendy pick to make the College Football Playoff. For the Buffaloes, a win would help, but there are still dozens of possibilities in which they could still be left out of the conference championship.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The Buffaloes are 17-point home favorites, according to both CFN’s FPM and Vegas. With an over-under of 65.5 points, the sportsbooks expect the Buffaloes to go wild offensively, with an implied final score close to 41-24, in favor of Colorado.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
The most lasting impression the Cowboys could leave would be an improbable upset to make the Big 12 Championship picture even more chaotic. They’ll be huge underdogs, with just a 9.8% chance to win, per CFN’s FPM.
- at Colorado: 9.8%
Colorado’s Winning Probability
As previously stated, a win doesn’t guarantee Colorado a spot in the conference championship, but it’d certainly help the odds.
We’ll explore the clearest path later, but all the Buffaloes can do at this point is take care of business in a game they have a 90.2% chance to win.
- vs. Oklahoma State: 90.2%
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. Colorado
It would take me literal hours to figure out and list all possible outcomes that could get Colorado to the Big 12 Championship Game, but I can list the simplest.
If Colorado wins and the BYU Cougars lose to the Houston Cougars, the Buffaloes are likely in. It would still have to avoid some other crazy results.
The simplest way to view this if you’re a Colorado fan (or a BYU, Iowa State Cyclones, or Arizona State Sun Devils fan) is to root for your team to win and the other teams at the top to lose. If two of those four teams lose, the other two get in. If one wins and the other three lose, that team gets in.
Beyond that, it’s so complicated that we’ll need more time this week to work it out.
None of it matters, though, if the Buffaloes lose (it’s possible there are still scenarios in which Colorado can lose and make the Big 12 Championship).
This is one of those games where I think Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter could go wild. While the Cowboys have been awful against the run, they haven’t exactly succeeded against the pass, either.
In key spots, Colorado goes to its playmakers. This is a key spot, and Colorado needs to rely on its playmakers.
The Buffaloes’ defense hasn’t exactly been the toughest against power-running teams, a style Oklahoma State should play but doesn’t. The Cowboys have been so strange on offense this season, bouncing quarterback Alan Bowman in and out of the lineup while asking him to throw at the FBS’ 13th-highest rate.
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OSU’s game plan needs to be to run the ball, then run the ball some more, then pretend to pass, but actually plan on running the ball again. The defense won’t last against Colorado’s offensive firepower, so the only path to victory is via a career game from Ollie Gordon II and an overwhelming gap in time of possession.
With that said, Mike Gundy has been stubborn this season, and I expect him to continue to air it out.
Unless Gundy reverts to a 2023 split between the run and pass, expect Colorado to run away with this one off of another impressive, Heisman-clinching performance from Hunter. I have him reaching 100 yards and two touchdowns on offense and picking off a pass defensively.
Colorado should win going away, then the Buffaloes will simply wait and see Saturday.
Prediction: Colorado 52, Oklahoma State 21
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