The Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Waco to take on the Baylor Bears on Saturday in a game that could spell disaster for both teams, but especially for Mike Gundy’s team and a remarkable record that they hold within college football.
Our Oklahoma State vs. Baylor prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Betting Preview
All Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oklahoma State -0.5 - Spread
Baylor -7 - Moneyline
Baylor -238, Oklahoma State +195 - Over/Under
65 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
McLane Stadium | Waco, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
92 degrees, sunny and hot, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN+
A longtime fixture on the college football calendar, Oklahoma State and Baylor avoided each other in the Big 12 a year ago, but the last time the Cowboys came to Waco, they left with an 11-point victory. Gundy’s team also boasts a 23-19 winning record over their conference rival, but the Bears will always have the 2021 Big 12 Championship game to revel in.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
DraftKings makes Baylor a seven-point favorite heading into the game, and the Bears are 2-1 outright and against the spread when favored. That said, the only conference game they’ve been fancied to win, they lost. Coming off a big win over Texas Tech will give them confidence, especially since Oklahoma State has lost four straight. The Cowboys covered while losing to BYU, and there’s a good chance of a similar outcome in Waco on Saturday.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Oklahoma State has a 50.4% chance of winning at Baylor on Saturday, which would give them their first Big 12 victory of the season. CFN FPM accurately predicted the Cowboys’ losses to the Utah Utes, Kansas State Wildcats, and BYU Cougars, reflecting some success in projecting their results.
However, our metric projected a similar winning probability for the loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers, showcasing that anything can happen in games as tight as the one expected at Baylor.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the 2024 season, which would give Gundy’s team a 6-6 regular season record, their lowest since 2018:
- at Baylor: 50.4%
- vs. Arizona State: 53.4%
- at TCU: 48.2%
- vs. Texas Tech: 53.4%
- at Colorado: 42.6%
Baylor’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Baylor has a 49.6% chance of beating Oklahoma State on Saturday, according to our metric. Although the CFN FPM accurately predicted wins over Tarleton State and the Air Force Falcons, we also had the Bears as a 5.5-point underdog for the Week 8 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Bears in the 2024 college football campaign:
- vs. Oklahoma State: 49.6%
- vs. TCU: 50.6%
- at West Virginia: 34.2%
- at Houston: 66.4%
- vs. Kansas: 60.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bears would end the year with a 6-6 record, returning to bowl eligibility after only scraping a three-win campaign a year ago. However, several coin-flip games could define the direction of the season — and head coach Dave Aranda’s job security.
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Both teams will have expected better than a 3-4 record heading into this Week 9 encounter. This is especially true for the Cowboys, who many tipped to be the heir to the Big 12 throne with the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners transitioning to the SEC. It hasn’t been the case, and instead, Oklahoma State vs. Baylor is a must-win salvage operation for bowl eligibility.
Can the Cowboys lasoo their season from the precipice of despair after a four-game losing spree, or will the Bears roar into life down the stretch after a significant win last time out? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
Offensively, Oklahoma State goes as Ollie Gordon II goes. After an offseason in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons, the reigning Doak Award winner has been well beneath the form that earned him Heisman Trophy consideration last fall. He rushed for over 100 yards in the season-opener and the loss to BYU, but in between, including three defeats, he labored without scoring.
Early in the season, that didn’t matter too much, with his mere presence allowing Alan Bowman and the Cowboys passing game to operate unhindered. However, a combination of injuries and incompetence led to a stretch where Gundy’s team didn’t get past 20 points in the losses to the West Virginia Mountaineers, BYU Cougars, and Utah Utes. No QB has over 60% completion.
Averaging just 3.83 yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs while giving up just seven scores on the ground despite facing the second-most rushing attempts (somewhat skewed by their matchup with Air Force), the Bears just have the ability to keep a lid on Gordon and the Cowboys’ run game. Baylor’s Matt Jones is a tackling force who thrives in opposition backfields.
Oklahoma State’s woes this season extend to the defensive side of the ball. Several key players, such as Collin Oliver and Nicholas Martin, have missed time with injury, while Cameron Epps announced Wednesday that he has torn his ACL. Although Trey Rucker may return, a less-than-stellar Cowboys unit may come undone against the Sawyer Robinson-led Bears.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 30
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