Friday night’s marquee matchup features the Oklahoma State Cowboys heading to Provo to take on a surging BYU Cougars squad. While one of these teams was initially seen as a potential Big 12 powerhouse in the reshaped college football landscape, it’s Kilani Sitake’s Cougars who are chasing College Football Playoff dreams as they enter this Week 8 showdown.
Will the Cowboys rediscover their spark, or will the Cougars keep their momentum rolling? Dive into our Oklahoma State vs. BYU prediction for all the insights.
Oklahoma State vs. BYU Betting Preview
All Georgia vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
BYU -10 - Spread
BYU -9 - Moneyline
BYU -340, Oklahoma State +270 - Over/Under
53 points - Game Time
10:15 p.m. ET - Location
LaVell Edwards Stadium | Provo, UT - Predicted Weather at Kick
48 degrees, partly sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
BYU started the week as an 8.5-point favorite, but as the week progressed, the official oddsmaker’s line closed on the original CFN FPM spread. Meanwhile, the moneyline has widened in favor of the Cougars as the team aims for a seventh win of the 2024 college football campaign. BYU is one of only two teams in the country with a perfect spread record heading into the game.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is 2-4 against the spread and failed to cover (by a substantial margin) in the only game where they’ve been an underdog this season. You won’t find many more explicit trend pointers toward an inevitable outcome than that. Although the teams have hit the over more often than not this year, Oklahoma State hasn’t scored more than 20 points in their last three.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
FPM isn’t very high on the Cowboys after three straight losses. Per the metric, the Cowboys have a 23.4% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 10 points. If the Cowboys can pull off the upset, they can salvage the season with a favorable late-year schedule.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at BYU: 23.4%
- at Baylor: 64.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 50.8%
- at TCU: 57.4%
- vs. Texas Tech: 51.8%
- at Colorado: 53.4%
BYU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Cougars have a 76.6% chance to win the game. This game represents BYU’s second-toughest challenge left on the schedule, and the Cougars can continue a magical season if they beat Oklahoma State.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Oklahoma State: 76.6%
- at UCF: 81.1%
- at Utah: 50.0%
- vs. Kansas: 87.8%
- at Arizona State: 74.6%
- vs. Houston: 93.5%
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. BYU
Oklahoma State heads to Provo at a critical juncture in their season. After three consecutive losses, the Cowboys are on the brink of fading into obscurity, but Mike Gundy has a talent for stringing together wins and restoring some measure of respectability.
LaVell Edwards Stadium is one of college football’s toughest venues, even when BYU isn’t at its best, and home-field advantage is a major factor for the Cougars. A Friday night game for an unbeaten squad? That place will be electric.
Not only that, but the Cougars are clicking on all fronts. Their success has been driven by a defense that excels at neutralizing opponents’ top threats. While for Oklahoma State that should be Ollie Gordon, it’s been Alan Bowman leading the charge, connecting with a talented trio of receivers this season.
The Oklahoma State offense has been inconsistent, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them put together a stronger performance on Friday. However, it might not be enough.
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The Cowboys’ defense is in disarray, and with BYU’s offense steadily improving throughout the season, this matchup is where the biggest disparity lies.
I expect BYU to dominate the time of possession and wear down a struggling Oklahoma State run defense. As they’ve done repeatedly this season, watch for the Cougars to pull away in the later stages after frustrating Oklahoma State early.
Take the Cougars and the points, while the total stays just under.
Prediction: BYU 31, Oklahoma State 17
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