The Oklahoma State Cowboys head to Waco to face the Baylor Bears on Saturday, in a matchup that could be pivotal for both teams, but especially for Mike Gundy’s squad and a notable record they hold in college football.
Our Oklahoma State vs. Baylor preview covers all the essentials, including the latest betting odds and each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Betting Preview
All Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Baylor -7 - Moneyline
Baylor -258, Oklahoma State +210 - Over/Under
65 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
McLane Stadium | Waco, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
92 degrees, sunny and hot, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN+
A longtime fixture on the college football calendar, Oklahoma State and Baylor avoided each other in the Big 12 a year ago, but the last time the Cowboys came to Waco, they left with an 11-point victory. Gundy’s team also boasts a 23-19 winning record over their conference rival, but the Bears will always have the 2021 Big 12 Championship game to revel in.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
DraftKings makes Baylor a seven-point favorite heading into the game, and the Bears are 2-1 outright and against the spread when favored. That said, the only conference game they’ve been fancied to win, they lost. Coming off a big win over Texas Tech will give them confidence, especially since Oklahoma State has lost four straight. The Cowboys covered while losing to BYU, and there’s a good chance of a similar outcome in Waco on Saturday.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Oklahoma State has a 50.4% chance of winning at Baylor on Saturday, which would give them their first Big 12 victory of the season. CFN FPM accurately predicted the Cowboys’ losses to the Utah Utes, Kansas State Wildcats, and BYU Cougars, reflecting some success in projecting their results.
However, our metric projected a similar winning probability for the loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers, showcasing that anything can happen in games as tight as the one expected at Baylor.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the 2024 season, which would give Gundy’s team a 6-6 regular season record, their lowest since 2018:
- at Baylor: 50.4%
- vs. Arizona State: 53.4%
- at TCU: 48.2%
- vs. Texas Tech: 53.4%
- at Colorado: 42.6%
Baylor’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Baylor has a 49.6% chance of beating Oklahoma State on Saturday, according to our metric. Although the CFN FPM accurately predicted wins over Tarleton State and the Air Force Falcons, we also had the Bears as a 5.5-point underdog for the Week 8 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
- vs. Oklahoma State: 49.6%
- vs. TCU: 50.6%
- at West Virginia: 34.2%
- at Houston: 66.4%
- vs. Kansas: 60.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bears would end the year with a 6-6 record, returning to bowl eligibility after only scraping a three-win campaign a year ago. However, several coin-flip games could define the direction of the season — and head coach Dave Aranda’s job security.
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Both teams hoped for more than a 3-4 record heading into this Week 9 showdown. This is especially true for the Cowboys, who many predicted would step up as Big 12 contenders with the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners moving to the SEC. Instead, Oklahoma State vs. Baylor has become a must-win game for both programs as they fight for bowl eligibility.
Can the Cowboys pull their season back from the brink after a four-game losing streak, or will the Bears surge down the stretch after a key victory in their last outing? Who has the upper hand, and where will the critical battles take place?
Offensively, Oklahoma State’s fortunes are tied to Ollie Gordon II. After a turbulent offseason, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner has struggled to match the form that made him a Heisman contender last year. He rushed for over 100 yards in the season opener and in the loss to BYU, but in other games—including three defeats—he’s found little success and has yet to score.
Early in the season, his presence alone allowed Alan Bowman and the Cowboys’ passing attack to find space. However, injuries and inconsistent play have led to a slump where Mike Gundy’s team has failed to surpass 20 points in losses to the West Virginia Mountaineers, BYU Cougars, and Utah Utes. No Oklahoma State quarterback has a completion rate over 60%.
Defensively, the Bears have managed to keep opposing running backs in check, allowing just 3.83 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns despite facing the second-most attempts in the league (skewed by their matchup with Air Force). Baylor’s Matt Jones has been a standout, excelling in bringing down ball carriers in the backfield.
Oklahoma State’s struggles extend to defense, where injuries have taken a toll. Key players like Collin Oliver and Nicholas Martin have missed time, and Cameron Epps announced he tore his ACL on Wednesday. Although Trey Rucker might return, the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable against the Sawyer Robinson-led Bears.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 30
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