The Ohio Bobcats and Miami (OH) RedHawks take their Battle of the Bricks rivalry to Detroit for the MAC Championship Game in what should be one of the most fiercely contested games of college football’s championship weekend.
Who will come out on top? Our Ohio vs. Miami (OH) prediction examines the latest odds, win probabilities, and forecasts the winner of the MAC Championship Game.
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) Betting Preview
All Ohio vs. Miami (OH) odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami (OH) -0.5 - Spread
Miami (OH) -2.5 - Moneyline
Miami (OH) -135, Ohio +114 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Ford Field | Detroit, MI - Predicted Weather at Kick
32 degrees, cloudy and cool, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN
Saturday marks the 101st edition of the Battle of the Bricks, and thanks to college football conference realignment, it’s the first time that Ohio and Miami (OH) have done battle in the MAC Championship Game. After their 30-20 regular season win, the second successive for the program in the rivalry, the RedHawks carry a 56-42-2 head-to-head advantage into the title game.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
As a result, Miami (OH) is a marginal favorite heading into the MAC Championship Game. DraftKings makes the RedHawks just shy of a field goal favorite, but the CFN FPM projects a closer game. Ohio has covered the spread in each of the last five, including as a +1 underdog against the Toledo Rockets. Miami (OH) hasn’t lost as a favorite this year, but could that change?
Ohio’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Ohio has a 49.4% chance of beating the RedHawks on Saturday afternoon. Our metric accurately projected the team’s loss to Miami (OH) earlier this year, but the Bobcats are much closer to their opponent than in that fixture.
- vs. Miami (OH): 49.4%
Miami (OH)’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Miami (OH) has a 50.6% chance of beating Ohio on Saturday afternoon in Detroit. It’s worth noting that our metric made the program just a three-point favorite for the regular season matchup against the Bobcats, a game they won by 10.
- vs. Ohio: 50.6%
Prediction for Ohio vs. Miami (OH)
If playing for a MAC title wasn’t a big enough of an occasion, the Battle of the Bricks rivalry adds even more of an edge to this clash between Ohio and Miami (OH). Everything about this game creates intrigue, and it should be one of the closest games we’ll see this weekend. If it were held on a cold, snowy Tuesday night, it would be a fitting conclusion to the Mid-American season.
Ohio enters the game on a five-game winning streak and holds the better overall record at 9-3. Yet, Miami (OH) is on a seven-game heater, and their 8-4 record features three Power Four defeats. They’ve been the best of the best in the MAC this year, so, who has the edge and who walks out of Ford Field on Saturday as the 2024 Mid-American Conference champion?
It’s easy to see why Miami (OH) is favored by the oddsmakers and our own metric. They’ve been ruthless on defense and earned their spot in the MAC Championship Game by shutting down a stellar Bowling Green Falcons team in their regular-season finale. They’ve allowed just 17.3 points per game this year, with no more than 12 conceded in their last three.
At the heart of their defense stands linebacker Matthew Salopek, who has logged over 100 tackles in four consecutive seasons for the RedHawks. More than just a downfield tackling machine with inflated numbers, Salopek does the business all over the field, proving a potent weapon as a run-stuffer in the backfield while being effective in pass coverage with three interceptions in 2024.
Salopek isn’t a one-man show, however. Pass rusher Brian Ugwu has been a dangerous threat to offenses all year, logging 14 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. Defensive back Raion Strader, a CFN Freshman All-American last fall, leads the country with 17 pass breakups and is one of three RedHawks with more than one interception.
Unsurprisingly, they’ve allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (7) and secured the second-most interceptions (11) in the MAC this year. They’ve also allowed the fewest yards per attempt (5.5) to opposition quarterbacks, who have only completed 57.4% of passes against the RedHawks’ stringent secondary. If defense wins championships, Miami (OH) is in a good spot.
Yet, they’re not the only team in the MAC Championship Game with a dominant defense. Ohio has allowed just 18.7 points per game on its run to the title game and no more than 21 in its last five games. They held Toledo to seven points, and the Kent State Golden Flashes couldn’t penetrate the Bobcats at all as Tim Albin’s team put up a 41-0 win just two weeks ago.
Crucially, Ohio has one of the top run defenses in the country. The Bobcats have allowed just 97.0 rushing yards per game, allowed opposition running backs just 3.13 yards per carry, and have given up the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the MAC. Since allowing Keyon Mozee to rush for 111 yards and a score, they’ve allowed no other team to tally 150+ rush yards.
While Miami (OH) quarterback Brett Gabbert is one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the conference (and Group of Five level), the RedHawks offense goes as their star running back does. Mozee has had just one game with under 100 rushing yards in the last five and leads the MAC with 1,045. If Ohio can bottle him up on Saturday, it turns the tide of the game.
The performance of Bobcats quarterback Parker Navarro will be the deciding factor in the MAC Championship Game. Miami (OH) frustrated the Ohio dual-threat earlier in the year, but his dangerous capability on the move has been unleashed in the last three weeks, and his connection with WR Coleman Owen has never been better. That could be the difference in a tight clash.
Prediction: Ohio 21, Miami (OH) 18
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