The expanded College Football Playoff has added playoff stakes to even more regular-season matchups, but a showdown between the 6-1 Ohio State Buckeyes and the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions would be significant in any postseason format.
With both teams led by coaches known for their high-stakes struggles, this matchup becomes even more intriguing. Before placing your bets, dive into our Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction for insights on the odds, total, and spread.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -1.5 - Spread
Ohio State -3.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -180, Penn State +150 - Over/Under
45 points - Game Time
Saturday, Nov. 2, noon ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Penn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
Saturday’s Week 10 slate gets started with a bang as the Big Noon Saturday game is a matchup between Ohio State and Penn State in a game that could have huge Big Ten Title and College Football Playoff implications.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The spread being -3.5 in Ohio State’s favor is intriguing, as it’s hovering around an important number but is a bit wider than the lines Vegas typically likes to set in these huge top-five matchups. With a total of 45 points, Vegas implies a final score close to 24-20 in favor of the Buckeyes.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Ohio State is a slight underdog, with a 47.5% chance of flying back home with a win on Saturday. A win against the Nittany Lions would keep the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat to make the Big Ten Championship game, as they also have a key matchup with undefeated Indiana later in the season.
- vs. Purdue: 98.7%
- at Northwestern: 95.3%
- vs. Indiana: 70.3%
- vs. Michigan: 87.4%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Penn State has a 52.5% chance of overcoming the Buckeyes at home. If the Nittany Lions win, they can essentially punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff and potentially the Big Ten title game, given the ease of their final stretch of the season.
- vs. Washington: 91.9%
- at Purdue: 94.7%
- at Minnesota: 81.1%
- vs. Maryland: 95.5%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Penn State
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter favors Penn State, especially with home-field advantage. But there’s one factor the FPM doesn’t capture: a team’s ability to shine in high-stakes games.
Each season, James Franklin’s Penn State squads seem to buckle under pressure at some point. So far, the Nittany Lions have held their own, edging out USC in Week 7 and narrowly escaping a tough game against Wisconsin at Camp Randall last weekend.
Yet, neither of those games compares to the test Ohio State brings to Happy Valley. This has all the makings of a defining moment—or a pitfall—for Penn State.
On the other side, Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes are known for their struggles in late-season top-10 battles.
Something’s got to give.
Both teams have looked dominant at times and vulnerable at others this season, and the health of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is a key factor. Allar’s careful approach with the ball could be crucial, as Ohio State’s offense has occasionally stumbled in sustaining long drives this year—a factor that plays to Penn State’s advantage.
Before the season, I saw Ohio State as the CFP National Championship favorite, but I overestimated the strength of their offensive line and overall offense. Nebraska exposed some cracks last Saturday, though they lacked the offensive spark to capitalize.
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On paper, I lean toward Penn State, especially with a 3.5-point cushion. Tight end Tyler Warren is exactly the type of player who could exploit Ohio State’s linebackers. Assuming Allar is healthy, he and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki should be able to scheme a cheap touchdown or two. In a low-scoring game, that could be decisive.
Yes, Ohio State has playmakers like Jeremiah Smith, but I doubt their ability to run on this Penn State defensive line, and I believe Penn State’s edge rushers can disrupt Will Howard.
Call it an upset, call it a breakthrough—but don’t call it a surprise when Penn State grinds this one out and wins outright.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Ohio State 20
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