While conference realignment has its drawbacks, there are certainly a few perks for fans. First among them is the introduction of a few high-level conference matchups. Saturday, we get a taste of that as the Ohio State Buckeyes head west to take on the Oregon Ducks.
The Buckeyes have looked cleaner through five games and are favored on the road in this top-three matchup. But is there an advantage on the other side? Before you bet, read our Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction and get the full analysis you need to profit.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -2 - Spread
Ohio State -4.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -155, Oregon +130 - Over/Under
51.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore. - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, sunny, three mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas disagree strongly on this one, with the latter favoring Ohio State by more than a field goal, while FPM leans toward Oregon. With a spread of 4.5 points and a total of 51.5, Vegas implies a final score close to 28-24 in favor of the Buckeyes.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread just opened, but the books are closely aligned, as Ohio State is a 3.5- to 4-point favorite on most books. This is the highlight of the day, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the betting handle.
It looks like this is already moving in favor of Oregon.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit lower on Ohio State than Vegas is.
FPM has the Buckeyes as two-point underdogs, giving them a win probability of 47.2%. Ohio State is a heavy favorite in every game this season other than against Penn State, with Oregon being the most difficult game on the schedule.
- at Oregon: 47.2%
- vs. Nebraska: 88.3%
- at Penn State: 57.4%
- vs. Purdue: 96.4%
- at Northwestern: 99.3%
- vs. Indiana: 81.6%
- vs. Michigan: 85.1%
USC’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oregon has a 52.8% chance to win on Saturday. The Ducks might be able to cruise to an undefeated regular season if they can win against the Buckeyes, as they’re heavy favorites in every remaining game.
- vs. Ohio State: 52.8%
- at Purdue: 95.1%
- vs. Illinois: 89.8%
- at Michigan: 73.0%
- vs. Maryland: 94.1%
- at Wisconsin: 91.3%
- vs. Washington: 92.1%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Oregon
The 12-team playoff makes regular seasons extremely intriguing for top teams. Oregon has not looked great this season, but Dan Lanning is the type of coach to experiment early in hopes of having his team at top form late.
Accordingly, an ugly 5-0 is still 5-0. And this is where the season really begins for the Ducks.
Dillon Gabriel and Co. have been in a “feeling out” period, with him trying to figure out how much he can conform to the offense and how much the offense can conform to him. They seem to be finding a happy medium, though he threw two bad picks in the red zone that made last week’s Michigan State game look substantially closer than it actually was.
If the Ducks hit their stride, they might be the best team in the country. But if they continue to play as poorly as they’ve played in the last few weeks, any number of mediocre Big Ten teams could catch them.
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Ohio State is probably the most talented team in the country but hasn’t needed to play a complete game yet. The defense is experienced and nasty, and the offense has several skill players who can take over a game.
Still, Will Howard has just been okay, which to this point has been fine since the Buckeyes haven’t played any teams competent on either side of the ball.
Oregon presents a unique challenge in that the defensive line is talented enough to slow the running game, and the secondary is good enough to at least challenge Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka on the outside. Meanwhile, the offense is good enough to score on Ohio State’s stout defense.
FPM thinks the Ducks are good enough to win. With the line already dropping, get in quickly, as I do like Lanning over Ryan Day here.
These are two playoff teams who could meet again on a neutral field, but given Oregon’s home-field advantage, take the Ducks. Jordan Burch and the defensive line will make Howard uncomfortable enough to rush him. If the Ducks get a couple of turnovers, they’ll grind it out over an Ohio State team that isn’t used to playing for four quarters.
Great game. Give me the Ducks straight up in a preview of a potential postseason rematch. I think the back-and-forth nature pushes it over as well.
Prediction: Oregon 30, Ohio State 28
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