The Ohio State Buckeyes own the all-time series lead against the Oregon Ducks (9-2), but the latter has won two straight, including the 32-31 thriller earlier this year. We didn’t get the rematch in the Big Ten Championship Game, thanks to Ohio State falling to the Michigan Wolverines, but we’ll get it in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
So, who will win this time? Our Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction dives into everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s on the line for both teams as they square off in the Rose Bowl.
Ohio State vs. Oregon College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -2.5 - Spread
Ohio State -1 - Moneyline
Ohio State -115, Oregon +105 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
5 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Jan. 1 - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Oregon has only been an underdog once this season — its first meeting with the Buckeyes, and we all know how that ended up.
Outside of that contest, the Ducks were double-digit favorites in all but one other game: the regular-season finale against the Penn State Nittany Lions. They not only covered in that game (-3.5) but defeated their opponent 45-37.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have been favored in every game this season and have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six.
They’ve also been a cash cow for under bettors, with the total failing to go over in six of their last eight matchups.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
While the Buckeyes haven’t lost more than two games in a single season since 2011, they also haven’t won a postseason contest since 2021 — until they beat the brakes off the Tennessee Vols 42-17 in Round 1 of the playoff.
Ryan Day’s middling record against top-five (4-7) and CFP (2-3) teams has some fans concerned, but he has his program in position to challenge for another national championship.
- at Oregon: 46.2%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
The 2024 season is just Dan Lanning’s third as Oregon’s head coach, but he’s performed so well that he’s been linked to NFL jobs this winter. He’s guided the Ducks to 10-3, 12-2, and 13-0 campaigns with back-to-back bowl wins, and now they are in the driver’s seat as the No. 1 team in the CFP.
- vs. Ohio State: 53.8%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Oregon
The last time we saw these two teams face off, Ohio State QB Will Howard slid the game away in Autzen Stadium after Oregon intentionally (?) put too many men on the field, burning precious seconds in exchange for a five-yard penalty.
While we may not see something quite as stupefying this time around, strange things often occur in rematches, especially when the stakes are the highest.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Did the Buckeyes torch Tennessee’s secondary? Yes. But Oregon’s is a different story (fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in dropback success rate).
While true freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith and future NFLer Emeka Egbuka will get theirs, Howard won’t be able to sit back and complete 24 of 29 of his passes at 10.7 yards per attempt.
The Ducks lead the Big Ten with 3.07 sacks per game, and EDGEs Jordan Burch and Matayo Uiagalelei should be able to take advantage of Donovan Jackson playing out of position at left tackle (usually the LG).
That said, Ohio State won the trenches on the other side of the ball last time around, with Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel needing to use his legs to get out of trouble several times. He was flawless last go-round, and he’ll need to be again with Chip Kelly seemingly unleashing the Buckeyes’ passing attack.
Expect another high-scoring shootout, with both teams going blow for blow. However, the Ducks have the rest, QB, head coach, and preparation advantage, and that’s enough to eke out a victory here.
Take Oregon to book a ticket to the CFP semifinals and face the winner between the Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Ohio State 31
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