The Ohio State Buckeyes hold a commanding lead in the all-time series against the Oregon Ducks (9-2), but the Ducks have taken the last two meetings, including a dramatic 32-31 victory earlier this season. While we missed out on a rematch in the Big Ten Championship due to Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, fate has delivered it in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
Who comes out on top this time? Our Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they clash in the iconic Rose Bowl.
Ohio State vs. Oregon College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oregon -2.5 - Spread
Ohio State -2.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -130, Oregon +110 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
5 p.m. ET, Wednesday, Jan. 1 - Location
Rose Bowl | Pasadena, Calif. - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Oregon has only been an underdog once this season — its first meeting with the Buckeyes, and we all know how that ended up.
Outside of that contest, the Ducks were double-digit favorites in all but one other game: the regular-season finale against the Penn State Nittany Lions. They not only covered in that game (-3.5) but defeated their opponent 45-37.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have been favored in every game this season and have gone 4-2 ATS in their last six.
They’ve also been a cash cow for under bettors, with the total failing to go over in six of their last eight matchups.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
While the Buckeyes haven’t lost more than two games in a single season since 2011, they also haven’t won a postseason contest since 2021 — until they beat the brakes off the Tennessee Vols 42-17 in Round 1 of the playoff.
Ryan Day’s middling record against top-five (4-7) and CFP (2-3) teams has some fans concerned, but he has his program in position to challenge for another national championship.
- at Oregon: 46.2%
Oregon’s Winning Probability
The 2024 season is just Dan Lanning’s third as Oregon’s head coach, but he’s performed so well that he’s been linked to NFL jobs this winter. He’s guided the Ducks to 10-3, 12-2, and 13-0 campaigns with back-to-back bowl wins, and now they are in the driver’s seat as the No. 1 team in the CFP.
- vs. Ohio State: 53.8%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Oregon
The last time these two teams squared off, we witnessed Ohio State QB Will Howard sliding away the game in Autzen Stadium, as Oregon seemingly (intentionally?) put too many men on the field to trade a five-yard penalty for burning precious seconds. It was a baffling moment in a game full of drama.
While we might not see something quite as head-scratching this time, rematches—especially with everything on the line—have a way of delivering the unexpected.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Yes, the Buckeyes torched Tennessee’s secondary. But Oregon’s defensive backfield is a whole different animal, ranking fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in dropback success rate.
Sure, Ohio State’s dynamic duo of true freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith and future NFL star Emeka Egbuka will get their plays, but Will Howard won’t have the luxury of carving up the defense with 24-of-29 passing for 10.7 yards per attempt this time around.
The Ducks’ defense leads the Big Ten with 3.07 sacks per game, and edge rushers Jordan Burch and Matayo Uiagalelei should exploit Ohio State’s offensive line, where Donovan Jackson has been forced to play out of position at left tackle instead of his usual left guard spot.
That said, the Buckeyes had the upper hand in the trenches on the other side of the ball in their last meeting. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel was forced to scramble and make plays on the move, and he did so flawlessly. He’ll need a repeat performance to keep up with Chip Kelly’s unleashed Buckeyes passing attack.
Expect another high-scoring, back-and-forth affair with both teams trading punches. But this time, the Ducks come in with the advantage in rest, preparation, QB play, and coaching. That edge should be enough to push Oregon over the top.
Take the Ducks to punch their ticket to the CFP semifinals, where they’ll meet the winner of the Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils showdown.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Ohio State 31
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