The expanded portion of the College Football Playoff is in the books. Now, it’s back to the core of what makes this tournament special: the top four teams battling it out. Following dramatically different quarterfinal performances, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns are set to clash for a spot in the national championship game.
Who will rise to the occasion? Our Ohio State vs. Texas prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to the stakes riding on this monumental semifinal showdown in the 2024 College Football Playoff.
Ohio State vs. Texas College Football Playoff Semifinals Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Texas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -3.5 - Spread
Ohio State -6 - Moneyline
Ohio State -230, Texas +190 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Friday, Jan. 10 - Location
AT&T Stadium | Arlington, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
TBD - How To Watch
ESPN
Both teams were favored in every game this season, including the playoff. However, following a 5-1 ATS start to the year, Texas has gone 3-6 since. Meanwhile, Ohio State covered all three of its games as a single-digit favorite in 2024.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
In terms of the total, the programs’ recent trends point toward the over:
- Texas and Ohio State have pushed the total over in back-to-back playoff games despite entering the postseason on under streaks.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
The Buckeyes haven’t endured three or more losses in a season since 2011, and in recent years, it’s been national championship or bust. After regular-season losses to Oregon and Michigan, Ryan Day faced immense pressure to turn things around in the College Football Playoff—and he’s delivered in style.
Ohio State has steamrolled its way to a 2-0 CFP record, dismantling Tennessee 42-17 and Oregon 41-21. Right now, the Buckeyes are arguably the hottest team left in the playoff.
- at Texas: 58.9%
Texas’ Winning Probability
It hasn’t always been pretty, but Steve Sarkisian has Texas just one win away from their first national championship appearance since 2010. Last season, the Longhorns fell just short in a 37-31 loss to Washington.
This year, after dropping two games to Georgia, all eyes were on how Texas would respond in the playoff. The answer? A 38-24 dismantling of Clemson followed by a gritty 39-31 double-overtime win against Arizona State.
- vs. Ohio State: 41.1%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Texas
Many view these games as QB vs. QB showdowns, but we know it’s really about how each quarterback fares against the opposing defense. In this case, I’ll take Will Howard against Texas’ defense over Quinn Ewers against Ohio State’s dominant unit.
After Ohio State’s loss to Oregon earlier this year, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made a pivotal adjustment, moving Jordan Hancock to a single-high safety role in the Buckeyes’ Cover 1-heavy scheme. This allowed Caleb Downs to shine closer to the line of scrimmage, unlocking his versatility.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The results? A suffocating defense that has allowed just 12.5 points per game down the stretch. Texas, on the other hand, has struggled to maintain consistency across all three phases, as evidenced by their quarterfinal matchup with Arizona State.
In that game, kicker Bert Auburn missed two field goals, the rushing attack averaged a paltry 1.8 yards per carry, and the defense collapsed in the second half, surrendering 28 points after giving up just three before halftime.
Ewers posted solid numbers—20 of 30 for 322 yards, three TDs, and one INT—but his pocket awareness has regressed, and he’s prone to at least a couple of questionable decisions per game. Ohio State’s defense, with 12 sacks in two CFP contests, is primed to make him pay.
The numbers back it up. Texas ranks 60th in early-down EPA and 30th in success rate, while Ohio State’s defense sits at third and 11th in those respective metrics.
Even if the Longhorns manage to slow down Chip Kelly’s offense, Ohio State’s arsenal of playmakers—including Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins—combined with an aggressive downfield attack, should prove overwhelming.
Expect the Buckeyes to capitalize on Texas’ inconsistency and secure a double-digit victory to advance to the national championship.
Prediction: Ohio State 30, Texas 20
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