The expanded College Football Playoff has added playoff stakes to even more regular-season matchups. Still, a showdown between the 6-1 Ohio State Buckeyes and the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions would be significant in any postseason format. Who wins in this crucial clash of Big Ten behemoths?
Our Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction covers everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to both teams’ outlooks as they head into the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -1.5 - Spread
Ohio State -3.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -175, Penn State +145 - Over/Under
46 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Penn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
While Ohio State fans focus on their rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines 365 days a year, there’s a substantial rivalry element behind their now-annual matchup with Penn State. Although the Nittany Lions had success early in the series, the tide has turned very much toward the Buckeyes in recent years. Ryan Day’s team enters the Week 10 clash having won the last seven.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The odds are currently in favor of another Ohio State win, but it’s worth noting that the CFN FPM actually leans toward a narrow Nittany Lions win. Both teams carry a 3-4 record against the spread into this game, so something has to give (unless there’s a push!). The Buckeyes have failed to cover in their last two outings, including in the narrow loss to Oregon.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Ohio State is a slight underdog, with a 47.5% chance of flying back home with a win on Saturday. A win against the Nittany Lions would keep the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat to make the Big Ten Championship game, as they also have a key matchup with undefeated Indiana later in the season.
- vs. Purdue: 98.7%
- at Northwestern: 95.3%
- vs. Indiana: 70.3%
- vs. Michigan: 87.4%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Penn State has a 52.5% chance of overcoming the Buckeyes at home. If the Nittany Lions win, they can essentially punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff and potentially the Big Ten title game, given the ease of their final stretch of the season.
- vs. Washington: 91.9%
- at Purdue: 94.7%
- at Minnesota: 81.1%
- vs. Maryland: 95.5%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Penn State
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter favors Penn State, especially with home-field advantage. But there’s one factor the FPM doesn’t capture: a team’s ability to shine in high-stakes games.
Each season, James Franklin’s Penn State squads seem to buckle under pressure at some point. So far, the Nittany Lions have held their own, edging out USC in Week 7 and narrowly escaping a tough game against Wisconsin at Camp Randall last weekend.
Yet, neither of those games compares to the test Ohio State brings to Happy Valley. This has all the makings of a defining moment—or a pitfall—for Penn State.
On the other side, Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes are known for their struggles in late-season top-10 battles.
Something’s got to give.
Both teams have looked dominant at times and vulnerable at others this season, and the health of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is a key factor. Allar’s careful approach with the ball could be crucial, as Ohio State’s offense has occasionally stumbled in sustaining long drives this year—a factor that plays to Penn State’s advantage.
Before the season, I saw Ohio State as the CFP National Championship favorite, but I overestimated the strength of their offensive line and overall offense. Nebraska exposed some cracks last Saturday, though they lacked the offensive spark to capitalize.
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On paper, I lean toward Penn State, especially with a 3.5-point cushion. Tight end Tyler Warren is exactly the type of player who could exploit Ohio State’s linebackers. Assuming Allar is healthy, he and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki should be able to scheme a cheap touchdown or two. In a low-scoring game, that could be decisive.
Yes, Ohio State has playmakers like Jeremiah Smith, but I doubt their ability to run on this Penn State defensive line, and I believe Penn State’s edge rushers can disrupt Will Howard.
Call it an upset, call it a breakthrough—but don’t call it a surprise when Penn State grinds this one out and wins outright.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Ohio State 20
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