The expanded College Football Playoff has raised the stakes for even more regular-season games. Yet, a matchup between the 6-1 Ohio State Buckeyes and the unbeaten Penn State Nittany Lions would be monumental in any postseason format. So, who comes out on top in this pivotal clash of Big Ten powerhouses?
Our Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction has you covered, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook as they gear up for the final stretch of the 2024 college football season.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Betting Preview
All Ohio State vs. Penn State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Nov. 1, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -1.5 - Spread
Ohio State -3 - Moneyline
Ohio State -162, Penn State +136 - Over/Under
46.5 points - Game Time
Noon ET - Location
Beaver Stadium | University Park, Penn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
51 degrees, partly cloudy, 2 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
While Ohio State fans focus on their rivalry with the Michigan Wolverines 365 days a year, there’s a substantial rivalry element behind their now-annual matchup with Penn State. Although the Nittany Lions had success early in the series, the tide has turned very much toward the Buckeyes in recent years. Ryan Day’s team enters the Week 10 clash having won the last seven.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The odds are currently in favor of another Ohio State win, but it’s worth noting that the CFN FPM actually leans toward a narrow Nittany Lions win. Both teams carry a 3-4 record against the spread into this game, so something has to give (unless there’s a push!). The Buckeyes have failed to cover in their last two outings, including in the narrow loss to Oregon.
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
According to CFN FPM, Ohio State is a slight underdog, with a 47.5% chance of flying back home with a win on Saturday. A win against the Nittany Lions would keep the Buckeyes in the driver’s seat to make the Big Ten Championship game, as they also have a key matchup with undefeated Indiana later in the season.
- vs. Purdue: 98.7%
- at Northwestern: 95.3%
- vs. Indiana: 70.3%
- vs. Michigan: 87.4%
Penn State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Penn State has a 52.5% chance of overcoming the Buckeyes at home. If the Nittany Lions win, they can essentially punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff and potentially the Big Ten title game, given the ease of their final stretch of the season.
- vs. Washington: 91.9%
- at Purdue: 94.7%
- at Minnesota: 81.1%
- vs. Maryland: 95.5%
Prediction for Ohio State vs. Penn State
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter favors Penn State, especially with the home-field edge. But there’s one factor the FPM doesn’t capture: a team’s ability to rise in high-stakes games.
Every season, James Franklin’s Penn State squads face moments where the pressure becomes a factor. So far, the Nittany Lions have held their ground, edging out USC in Week 7 and surviving a battle at Camp Randall against Wisconsin last weekend.
Yet, neither of those games holds a candle to the challenge Ohio State brings to Happy Valley. This game has all the ingredients to be either a turning point or a stumbling block for Penn State.
On the other side, Ryan Day’s Ohio State Buckeyes are known to struggle in late-season top-10 clashes.
Something’s got to give.
Both teams have had moments of dominance and vulnerability this season, and the health of Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is critical. Allar’s careful handling of the ball could be pivotal, given Ohio State’s offense has sometimes struggled to sustain long drives—a weakness that favors Penn State.
Before the season, I had Ohio State pegged as the CFP National Championship favorite, but I overestimated their offensive line and overall strength. Nebraska exposed some cracks last Saturday, though they lacked the firepower to capitalize.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
On paper, I lean toward Penn State, especially with a 3.5-point cushion. Tight end Tyler Warren is the kind of player who could challenge Ohio State’s linebackers. If Allar is healthy, he and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki have the tools to pull off a couple of unexpected touchdowns. In a low-scoring game, those could make all the difference.
Yes, Ohio State has playmakers like Jeremiah Smith, but I doubt their ability to run against this Penn State defensive line, and I believe Penn State’s edge rushers will give Will Howard a hard time.
Call it an upset, call it a breakthrough—but don’t call it a surprise when Penn State grinds out a win in this one.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Ohio State 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.