Show me anyone who predicted the undefeated Navy Midshipmen would be facing off against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a late-October matchup with College Football Playoff implications before the season began, and I’ll show you a liar. Yet, here we are with one of the top games of Week 9, as the two teams prepare to clash at MetLife Stadium.
Our Notre Dame vs. Navy preview covers everything you need to know, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Navy odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -14 - Spread
Notre Dame -13.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -520, Navy +390 - Over/Under
51 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Metlife Stadium | East Rutherford, NJ - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, partly sunny, 10 mph - How to Watch
ABC
A long-time rivalry game, Notre Dame enters the 2024 edition with an 80-13-1 head-to-head advantage against Navy. After beating up on the Midshipmen overseas to start the 2023 college football campaign, the Fighting Irish are on a six-game win streak against the Week 9 foes. Can Marcus Freeman’s team continue that trend against a Brian Newberry-led Navy team?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The CFN FPM makes the Fighting Irish a two-touchdown favorite, while the official DraftKings odds give Navy a slightly better shot at winning. Although the Irish have covered the spread in their last two, they’ve been spotty this season, with twice failing to cover as a double-digit favorite. After they didn’t cover in Week 1, Navy has covered ever since during their undefeated run.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Notre Dame has an 84.2% chance of beating Navy on Saturday. The Fighting Irish have rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois and won every game since by at least one touchdown.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Notre Dame in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Navy (neutral site): 84.2%
- vs. Florida State: 93.9%
- vs. Virginia: 87.2%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 87.4%
- at USC: 65.1%
If these win probabilities hold true, the Fighting Irish will end the year with an 11-1 record. The program is currently ranked 12th in the AP Poll, which wouldn’t be good enough for a College Football Playoff berth. However, if they win out as projected here, they should end the year comfortably in playoff contention.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM only gives Navy an 15.8% chance of beating Notre Dame in Week 9. While the Midshipmen are a significant underdog, they overcame the odds to beat the Memphis Tigers earlier in the season.
The full win probabilities for Navy in the 2024 college football season are below:
- vs. Notre Dame (neutral site): 15.8%
- at Rice: 73%
- at USF: 50.8%
- vs. Tulane: 47.5%
- at East Carolina: 75.3%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 51.2%
If these win probabilities hold true, the Midshipmen would end the campaign with a 10-2 record, dropping games to Notre Dame and the Tulane Green Wave. That would match the program’s best regular season record, and with a 7-1 record in the AAC, would also match their best conference record with the potential to land a place in the AAC Championship Game.
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Navy
Notre Dame vs. Navy takes center stage on ABC this week, offering the undefeated Midshipmen a chance to showcase their exciting and unique option offense to a national audience for the first time this fall. The Fighting Irish, looking to rebound after a loss to a Group of Five opponent earlier this season, will be at their best.
This matchup promises to deliver a thrilling game where historic rivalry meets modern stakes. Will the Midshipmen pull off an upset, or will Notre Dame’s strength prove decisive once again? We break down the key matchups and analyze who has the edge.
Navy’s resurgence as a national contender has been a highlight of this season. Offensive coordinator Drew Cronic has injected new life into the team with an innovative scheme that truly took off in 2024. As expected, they’re among the nation’s best in rushing, ranking fourth overall, but their offense goes deeper than just ground-and-pound.
Quarterback Blake Horvath has emerged as a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, equally dangerous through the air as he is on the ground with explosive 90-yard touchdown runs. Behind an offensive line that has allowed just 0.5 sacks per game, and with playmakers like Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich, Navy is putting up 44.8 points per game.
Defensively, Navy is thriving under the leadership of a former defensive coordinator. They rank second nationally in turnover margin (+2.0 per game), with Dashaun Peele fresh off a two-pick-six performance against Charlotte. Rayuan Lane III adds to the secondary’s prowess with multiple interceptions, including a pick-six of his own.
The Midshipmen also rank in the top 50 for sacks and tackles for loss, led by Justin Reed and All-American candidate linebacker Colin Ramos. Their red zone defense has been particularly stingy, allowing touchdowns on just 42.11% of opponents’ trips, contributing to a defense that has given up just 19.7 points per game.
However, Notre Dame’s defense is equally formidable.
The Fighting Irish have allowed only 11.9 points per game, placing in the top 30 for rush defense (113.4 yards per game), pass defense (165.9 yards per game), and total defense (279.0 yards per game).
Navy’s run-heavy offense presents a unique challenge, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed a single 100-yard rusher this season. Anchored by Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills, who have combined for 8.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks, the Fighting Irish defensive front is a tough unit to crack.
While the loss of cornerback Benjamin Morrison stings, Notre Dame’s defense is still well-equipped to challenge Navy’s attack. Offensively, the Irish have a strong ground game of their own, with four different ball carriers averaging over six yards per carry.
Expect Riley Leonard to find the end zone with his legs in what should be a closely contested Notre Dame victory.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Navy 23
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