Show me the person who had the undefeated Navy Midshipmen taking on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a late-October game with College Football Playoff permutations prior to the season, and I’ll show you a liar. Nonetheless, one of the top games in Week 9 will see the two teams clash in MetLife Stadium.
Our Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Navy odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -14 - Spread
Notre Dame -11.5 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -485, Navy +370 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Metlife Stadium | East Rutherford, NJ - Predicted Weather at Kick
71 degrees, partly sunny, 10 mph - How to Watch
ABC
A long-time rivalry game, Notre Dame enters the 2024 edition with an 80-13-1 head-to-head advantage against Navy. After beating up on the Midshipmen overseas to start the 2023 college football campaign, the Fighting Irish are on a six-game win streak against the Week 9 foes. Can Marcus Freeman’s team continue that trend against a Brian Newberry-led Navy team?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The CFN FPM makes the Fighting Irish a two-touchdown favorite, while the official DraftKings odds give Navy a slightly better shot at winning. Although the Irish have covered the spread in their last two, they’ve been spotty this season, with twice failing to cover as a double-digit favorite. After they didn’t cover in Week 1, Navy has covered ever since during their undefeated run.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Notre Dame has an 84.2% chance of beating Navy on Saturday. The Fighting Irish have rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois and won every game since by at least one touchdown.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Notre Dame in the 2024 college football season:
- vs. Navy (neutral site): 84.2%
- vs. Florida State: 93.9%
- vs. Virginia: 87.2%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 87.4%
- at USC: 65.1%
If these win probabilities hold true, the Fighting Irish will end the year with an 11-1 record. The program is currently ranked 12th in the AP Poll, which wouldn’t be good enough for a College Football Playoff berth. However, if they win out as projected here, they should end the year comfortably in playoff contention.
Navy’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM only gives Navy an 15.8% chance of beating Notre Dame in Week 9. While the Midshipmen are a significant underdog, they overcame the odds to beat the Memphis Tigers earlier in the season.
The full win probabilities for Navy in the 2024 college football season are below:
- vs. Notre Dame (neutral site): 15.8%
- at Rice: 73%
- at USF: 50.8%
- vs. Tulane: 47.5%
- at East Carolina: 75.3%
- vs. Army (neutral site): 51.2%
If these win probabilities hold true, the Midshipmen would end the campaign with a 10-2 record, dropping games to Notre Dame and the Tulane Green Wave. That would match the program’s best regular season record, and with a 7-1 record in the AAC, would also match their best conference record with the potential to land a place in the AAC Championship Game.
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Navy
Notre Dame vs. Navy deservedly gets the ABC treatment this week, with the undefeated Midshipmen getting to showcase their exciting and unique brand of option football to a national audience for the first time this fall. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish will be on top of their game after suffering one loss to a Group of Five team this season.
As such, we should be treated to an outstanding game where traditional rivalries meet modern-day relevance. Can the Midshipmen secure a shock win, or will Notre Dame prove to powerful once more? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
The revival of the Navy football program as a nationally relevant force has been something to behold this fall. The acquisition of offensive coordinator Drew Cronic has provided the program with an innovative offensive scheme that we were promised in 2023 but never really materialized. As you’d expect, they rank fourth in the nation for rushing yards per game, but there’s more to it than that.
Quarterback Blake Horvath is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender who is equally capable of hauling the rock down field in the passing game as he is of breaking off 90-yard touchdown runs. Behind an offensive line that has allowed just 0.5 sacks per game and with talented weapons like Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich, Navy is averaging 44.8 points per game in 2024.
As you’d expect from a team led by a former defensive coordinator, Navy gets after it on the other side of the ball too. The Midshipmen are second in the nation for turnover margin (+2.0 turnovers per game), with Dashaun Peele entering the Week 9 contest after snagging two pick-sixes against Charlotte. Rayuan Lane III also has a pick-six among multiple interceptions.
Meanwhile, they rank in the top 50 nationally for sacks and tackles for loss, with Justin Reed and All-American caliber linebacker Colin Ramos leading the way. They’ve also allowed a touchdown on just 42.11% of opposition red zone trips, helping to contribute to a unit that has allowed just 19.7 points per game this fall.
Yet, the Notre Dame defense is no slouch either.
The Fighting Irish have allowed just 11.9 points per game while ranking in the top 30 nationally for rush (113.4 yards per game), pass (165.9 yards per game), and total defense (279.0 yards per game).
Navy has arguably the most unique, run-orientated offense they’ve faced to date. Still, Notre Dame has not allowed a single 100-yard rusher this season. Defensive linemen Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills have been a force at the heart of the Fighting Irish front, combining for 8.5 tackles for loss and seven sacks.
The loss of cornerback Benjamin Morrison hurts, but Notre Dame likely has the defense to hold the Midshipmen offense. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish boast their own impressive ground game, with four different ball carriers tallying double-digit carries and over six yards per attempt. Expect Riley Leonard to find the end zone at least once with his legs in a tight Notre Dame win.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Navy 23
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