An early season loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies has skewed national perspective on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who have won four games straight to enter the College Football Playoff conversation ahead of their game with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, who are on a winning streak of their own.
Can the Yellow Jackets continue their momentum, or will the Fighting Irish further strengthen their standing as a postseason protagonist? Find out which way we lean in this Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech prediction.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -5.5 - Spread
Notre Dame -12 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -410, Georgia Tech +320 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA - Predicted Weather at Kick
Indoors - How To Watch
ESPN
Notre Dame opened as a touchdown and change favorite on Sunday, with an 8.5-point advantage toward Marcus Freeman’s team. However, since opening, there has clearly been a flurry of activity around the Fighting Irish, with the spread booming out to 12 points by midweek. If you fancy the Yellow Jackets to cover, now might be the time because there’s a good chance of another swing back toward the CFN FPM spread of -5.5.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
If the spread stays at 12, that plays into Georgia Tech’s betting trends in the 2024 college football season. The only other time they’ve been a double-digit underdog this season was the opener in Dublin, where they covered the 10.5-point line on their way to a famous victory. They’re 4-2-1 ATS this year, whereas Notre Dame is 3-2-1 with a 2-3 record as a spread favorite.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
FPM favors the Fighting Irish, but only slightly. According to the metric, Notre Dame has a 65.1% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 5.5 points.
This game represents one of Notre Dame’s toughest challenges of the year, and the Fighting Irish have a good chance to win out if they can beat the Yellow Jackets. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Georgia Tech: 65.1%
- vs. Navy: 87.8%
- vs. Florida State: 89.0%
- vs. Virginia: 84.2%
- vs. Army: 87.2%
- at USC: 60.6%
Georgia Tech’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Yellow Jackets have a 34.9% chance to win the game, FPM. This game represents Georgia Tech’s third-toughest challenge of the rest of a difficult schedule. Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Notre Dame: 34.9%
- at Virginia Tech: 50.8%
- vs. Miami (FL): 33.6%
- vs. NC State: 75.3%
- at Georgia: 13.2%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech
While Notre Dame is the better team, this is a bad matchup for the Irish, who would prefer to dominate both lines of scrimmage and wear opponents down, much like Georgia Tech enjoys doing. The Yellow Jackets represent the biggest challenge in the trenches to the Irish for this year.
Before this past weekend, that would likely have led to me picking the Yellow Jackets in an upset. While I’m still tempted to do so, Notre Dame’s newfound success through the air via quarterback Riley Leonard gives me pause. The teams that have beaten the Yellow Jackets have found consistent success through the air, particularly in the middle of the field.
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Leonard has improved steadily over the past year, and the Irish have the offense line to keep him clean against a good Georgia Tech front.
Defensively, Notre Dame’s defensive line is the best the Yellow Jackets have faced. That will be a battle. I will need Haynes King to show me more through the air before I’m ready to anoint Georgia Tech as the winner.
While both teams want to play smashmouth football, the team that throws the ball more consistently will win. That’s Notre Dame, but it should be low-scoring and close. Notre Dame wins, and Georgia Tech covers.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Georgia Tech 21
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