The stage is set for the first quarterfinal of the 12-team College Football Playoff as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Georgia Bulldogs head to New Orleans for a showdown in the AllState Sugar Bowl. The winner will punch their ticket to the semifinal. Can Marcus Freeman rally his team to take down Kirby Smart’s squad? Do the Bulldogs have enough bite to prevail without their starting quarterback?
Our Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction tackles these pivotal questions, examines the latest betting odds, and delivers a final score prediction for this College Football Playoff quarterfinal clash.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Sugar Bowl Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Dec. 29, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -1.5 - Spread
Georgia -1 - Moneyline
Georgia -120, Notre Dame +100 - Over/Under
44.5 points - Game time
8:45 p.m. ET - Location
Caesars Superdome | New Orleans, LA - Predicted Weather at Kick
Game played indoors - How to Watch
ESPN
There’s not a rich history between the Bulldogs and Notre Dame, with just three previous matchups between the two storied programs. Facing Georgia hasn’t been that lucky for the Irish, with three defeats, including the 1981 Sugar Bowl and the most recent matchup (in Athens) in 2019. All three previous games have been one-score affairs, setting the scene for a tight game.
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The latest Notre Dame vs. Georgia betting odds showcase just how close this Sugar Bowl matchup may be. Early lines have the Bulldogs as a one-point favorite, while CFN FPM gives Georgia a field goal advantage. The Irish won the only other time they were an underdog in 2024, while Smart’s SEC champions have covered the spread just four times all season.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Notre Dame has a 46.8% chance of beating the Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. While disheartening for Fighting Irish fans, it’s worth noting that our metric made the program a slender favorite over the Indiana Hoosiers in their first round matchup, and everyone saw how that game played out.
- vs. Georgia: 46.8%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, our metric gives Georgia a 53.2% chance of fighting off the Irish in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. This is one of the most difficult matchups that the Bulldogs could have drawn based on the CFN FPM win probabilities, with multiple teams given less than a 40% chance of beating the SEC champion.
- vs. Notre Dame: 53.2%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Georgia
As I dive into this Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction ahead of the remaining first-round matchups, it’s impossible to ignore the magnetic intrigue and excitement surrounding this Sugar Bowl showdown. Few games carry the weight of such rare encounters, where high stakes and storied legacies collide to produce top-tier drama.
Can Marcus Freeman guide his 12-1 Fighting Irish past their College Football Playoff barrier, securing a win that cements their status as true contenders? Or will Georgia, fresh off an overtime SEC title triumph, solidify its place as college football’s dominant force in a season where they’ve battled through adversity and defied tempered expectations?
For Georgia, the biggest hurdle will be the absence of quarterback Carson Beck. The star signal-caller, who has navigated a season filled with ups and downs, sustained an arm injury during the SEC Championship win over Texas and is sidelined for the Sugar Bowl. In his place, Gunner Stockton takes the reins.
While Stockton performed admirably in relief against Texas, his insertion into the starting lineup undeniably shifts the dynamics of Georgia’s offense. The onus will now fall on an offensive line that hasn’t lived up to Georgia’s usual elite standards and a backfield tasked with carrying a heavier load.
This shift could play directly into Notre Dame’s hands. The Fighting Irish are arguably the most physical team in the country, blending punishing defense with a potent mix of power runs and explosive offensive plays.
Georgia’s offensive line will face a daunting challenge in containing Notre Dame’s disruptive defense, spearheaded by standout defensive lineman Rylie Mills. Meanwhile, Stockton’s ability to attack the deep third and fully utilize a receiving corps that has underwhelmed this season will be tested by Xavier Watts, Adon Shuler, and CFN Freshman All-American Leonard Moore.
Defensively, Georgia has long been a powerhouse under Kirby Smart, and this season is no exception. A creative scheme paired with playmakers like Malaki Starks, Jalon Walker, and Chaz Chambliss ensures the Bulldogs remain a threat. Yet, Notre Dame has the tools to exploit vulnerabilities in Georgia’s defense.
In 2024, only three SEC teams allowed more 20+ yard rushing plays than Georgia, and their ranking in the lower half of the SEC for 10+ yard rushing plays underscores a potential Achilles’ heel. Enter Jeremiyah Love, one of college football’s most electric playmakers. His jaw-dropping 98-yard touchdown run against Indiana is just one example of his ability to dismantle defenses.
Combine Notre Dame’s explosive offensive capabilities with a defense that has allowed 20+ points in just two of 13 games, and you have a formula that could spell trouble for Georgia. It’s no wonder Freeman has drawn NFL interest and earned a contract extension—his teams are consistently disciplined, prepared, and relentless.
Right now, the Fighting Irish might be the most dangerous team in college football. Still, underestimating a Kirby Smart-led Georgia squad is always risky. His ability to rally his team and use external doubt as fuel has propelled the Bulldogs beyond expectations time and again.
However, this might be Notre Dame’s moment. In the Sugar Bowl, Freeman’s team could very well have Smart’s number.
Prediction: Notre Dame 30, Georgia 23
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