The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and USC Trojans face off in one of college football’s most iconic rivalries, with heightened stakes for one side as they clash on Saturday afternoon. Notre Dame seems poised for a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff, but could the Trojans deliver a last-minute setback that raises questions about their credentials?
Who will come out on top? Our Notre Dame vs. USC prediction breaks down everything you need to know—from the latest betting odds to what’s at stake for both teams as they navigate the final stretch of the 2024 college football regular season.
Notre Dame vs. USC Betting Preview
All Notre Dame vs. USC odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Notre Dame -9 - Spread
Notre Dame -7 - Moneyline
Notre Dame -265, USC +215 - Over/Under
52.5 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Los Angeles, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 2 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
CBS
Saturday marks the 92nd edition of the Notre Dame vs. USC rivalry, which has featured prominently in popular culture moments such as the Christmas classic Die Hard. Having beaten the Trojans handily in 2023, the Fighting Irish carry a decent 49-37-5 head-to-head lead into this Week 14 clash and are favored to extend that historical advantage when the two teams meet.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Although you can usually throw betting trends out the window in a rivalry matchup, there’s something to be said about Notre Dame’s current run of form. The Irish have won their last nine games as a favorite and have covered the spread in their last six. USC lost the last time they were an underdog (against the Penn State Nittany Lions), but did manage to cover in the 33-30 loss.
Notre Dame’s Winning Probability
The Fighting Irish have won 10+ games in seven of the last eight seasons. Yet, they want more in 2024. Marcus Freeman’s squad entered Week 13 as the No. 6 team in the College Football Playoff Committee’s rankings, and they should move up with the new release on Tuesday.
- at USC: 75.1%
USC’s Winning Probability
The Trojans secured bowl eligibility with a win over their crosstown rivals, the UCLA Bruins, last week, but it’s been the “worst” season in the Lincoln Riley era. Year 1 saw USC go 11-3 and earn a Cotton Bowl berth, but the decline began the following season, resulting in an 8-5 campaign.
- vs. Notre Dame: 24.9%
Prediction for Notre Dame vs. USC
Let’s not bury the lede—Notre Dame is winning. The real question is: by how much? The Irish offense is a scoring machine, averaging 40.1 points per game and putting up 49+ points in five different outings. Meanwhile, USC, now on its second quarterback, has struggled to score 30 points in all but three games this season. But let’s dig a little deeper.
Notre Dame thrives on the ground, running the ball at the 41st-highest rate (55.18%) and racking up the 11th-most rushing yards per game (221.8). That spells trouble for a USC defense that ranks 107th in early down EPA and 63rd in defensive rush success rate.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Offensively, the Trojans lean heavily on the pass, throwing at the sixth-highest rate (60.32%). Unfortunately for them, they’ll face Notre Dame’s elite pass defense, ranked No. 1 in dropback success rate and No. 2 in EPA per dropback. “Well, at least Woody Marks averages 5.7 yards per carry, right?”
Not so fast.
The Irish allow just 3.5 yards per attempt, rank No. 8 in third-down conversion rate allowed (29.7%), and sit at No. 5 in red-zone defensive efficiency (70.8%).
Even factoring in the chaos of a heated rivalry game, USC has too few paths to victory. Count on Notre Dame to dismantle Riley and Co. yet again as they wrap up the regular season and gear up for the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45, USC 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.